HIGH SIERRA WEATHER Theory and Practices: ENSO, the MJO, and the PDO


Alex Wierbinski's picture

By Alex Wierbinski - Posted on 07 March 2018

 

HIGH SIERRA WEATHER
THEORY and PRACTICES
Relationships Between Long and Short Ocean-Atmospheric Patterns

ENSO, the MJO, and the PDO

North Pacific climate patterns influence El Nino occurrences,
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, March 7, 2017.

"Previous studies have investigated the relationship between ENSO and PDO but none have examined if the warm (positive) and cool (negative) phases of PDO in the North Pacific influence the frequency of ENSO events in the tropical Pacific."

"We quantitatively demonstrated that El Nino is 300 percent more (58 percent less) frequent than La Nina in positive (negative) PDO phases."

This confusing sentence seems to be attempting to impart the two phases of the PDO. It would have been much clearer to state this in two sentences, with the second sentence, or clause, being,

"We quantitatively demonstrated that El Nino is 300 percent more frequent than La Nina when the PDO is positive, while in negative phases El Nino is 58 percent less frequent than La Nina."

Right Now
The PDO is currently in a negative phase. The current La Nina has been under-predicted (unexpected!) throughout its whole life, and is now predicted to go "neutral" into Spring. See the reports linked to below for more information.

 

ENSO, MJO, and PDO Information

El Nino Information, Real Time Observations & Information


ENSO EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION REPORT
We observe the cycle of warming and cooling off the Coast of Peru and Western South America.


MJO Madden Julian Oscillation

"The Madden-Julian Oscillation is a major fluctuation in tropical circulation and rainfall that moves eastward along the equator, and circles the entire globe in a span of 30–60 days on average."

PDO Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Currently at a Negative Value
"The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is often described as a long-lived El Niño-like pattern of Pacific climate variability."

The PDO can be viewed as a long-term, slow "sloshing" of warm water back and forth across the Central Pacific Ocean, while El Nino-La Nina operates on a quicker cycle.

 

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