Warning: INSERT command denied to user 'dbo256360593'@'74.208.59.62' for table 'watchdog' query: INSERT INTO watchdog (uid, type, message, variables, severity, link, location, referer, hostname, timestamp) VALUES (0, 'php', '%message in %file on line %line.', 'a:4:{s:6:\"%error\";s:12:\"user warning\";s:8:\"%message\";s:404:\"INSERT command denied to user 'dbo256360593'@'74.208.59.62' for table 'captcha_sessions'\nquery: INSERT into captcha_sessions (uid, sid, ip_address, timestamp, form_id, solution, status, attempts) VALUES (0, 'e00f29106d6628955550789f87e17b90', '35.168.111.191', 1579727507, 'user_login_block', 'ffa44619a1b687f5863fdce7fec022b7', 0, 0)\";s:5:\"%file\";s:88:\"/homepages/45/d175009339/htdocs/tahoetowhitney.org/sites/all/modules/captcha/captcha.inc\";s: in /homepages/45/d175009339/htdocs/tahoetowhitney.org/includes/database.mysqli.inc on line 134
Warming Waters Making Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the "PDO," Less Predictable

Warming Waters Making Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the "PDO," Less Predictable


Alex Wierbinski's picture

By Alex Wierbinski - Posted on 26 December 2019

 

OCEANS, WARMING, & LONG-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTING

 

Pacific Decadal Oscillation Temperatures
Pacific Decadal Oscillation Sea surface temperatures during cold phase of PDO, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation.
Sea surface temperatures during cold phase of PDO, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation.

 

Warming Waters Making Pacific Decadal Oscillation Less Predictable

Seasonal Forecasts Challenged by Pacific Ocean Warming,
CSIRO Australia, December 17, 2019.

MAIN POINTS

Less Predictable
"The research found that the PDO would become less predictable as the planet warms, because warming conditions result in a significantly shortened PDO lifespan."

PDO Definition from NOAA
PDO Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Currently at a Negative Value
"The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is often described as a long-lived El Niño-like pattern of Pacific climate variability."-NOAA.

The PDO can be viewed as a long-term, slow "sloshing" of warm water back and forth across the Central Pacific Ocean, while El Nino-La Nina movement of hot water operates on a quicker cycle. More

El Nino Effect
"With a less predictable PDO, it may be more difficult to predict the likely impact of El Niño."

Big Wheels are Turning
"Many people are familiar with the role that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation plays in climate but might be surprised that there are bigger forces at play like the PDO, which influences our marine environment, as well as climate extremes."

Da PDO
"The PDO is a decadal-spanning pattern of Pacific climate variability, operating in the Pacific Ocean, and exerting a substantial influence on global climate and marine conditions from the US and Japan to Australia and New Zealand."

"The research found that the PDO would become less predictable as the planet warms, because warming conditions result in a significantly shortened PDO lifespan."

PDO Warm & Cold Phases
"During a PDO cold phase, the tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures are lower, and Australia's decadal rainfall tends to be above average."

"Under warm phases, the opposite occurs, with below average rainfall."

Aussies on Fire
"When we're in a Pacific Decadal Oscillation cold phase, El Niño is more likely to affect Australian rainfall and surface temperatures."

WHY?
Increased Ocean Stratification
"An oceanic feature called upper ocean stratification causes upper ocean layers to warm faster than deeper ones."

"Stratification intensifies under warming."

Rapid Rossby Wave Action
"Rossby waves, an underwater wave feature, move faster in more stratified waters, which shortens the PDO lifespan further and reduces the time it has to gain strength and intensity."

Forecasting Effects
"In our current climate, we can potentially predict the PDO approximately eight years ahead. That lead time will likely be reduced to three years by the end of the 21st century."

 

 

Pacific Decadal Oscillation

NOAA
Centers for Environmental Information
Pacific Decadal Oscillation

 

Research & Information about Rossby Waves

Rossby Waves
Jan 2019
Rossby Waves Tie Together Extreme Rainfall Events Around the World

 

The Weather Page
El Nino-La Nina, with other Pacific Ocean Circulation Events

 

 

 

Fish-Ice-Oceans-Water

News of Man & Nature, December 2019

 

 

 

TOP

 

 

  

More
Nature News

 

Climate Destruction News

 

Trees

Bee News

Bear News

Spider Forum

Bird News

Small Mammals

Frogs and Reptiles

Butterfly News

 

Health and Fitness

Mountain Safety

Mosquito News

Female Trail

High Sierra History

 

Astro-Phys, Space, & Science News

High Sierra Geology News

Fish, Oceans, & Water News

Anthropocene

 

 

TOP

 

Pacific Ocean, warming, affects, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Rossby Waves, weakened, increased, ocean stratification, reduced, forecast, accuracy, duration, El Nino, PDO

 

Powered by Drupal, an open source content management system

Latest News: RSS FEED

Syndicate content

Support Tahoe to Whitney

The Tahoe to Whitney Trail Guide and Magazine are walked, written, funded, and supported by my efforts, with the help of kindred spirits and my sister.

We offer valuable Trail Guide, Skills, Weather, News and Analysis.

My goal is to get you out to see your natural and social potential. Help me keep this unique resource accessible and expanding towards its potential. We've a lot of miles to cover ahead...

I NEED HELP!
If you feel these efforts are valuable, I'm cordially inviting you to support them, here:

 

 

I am currently working towards publishing the completed guide between Tahoe & Yosemite as an e-book, while converting this "blog" to a fine magazine format. You will like the results! Help Tahoe to Whitney reach its potential!

 

Why Support Tahoe to Whitney?
Mission Statement


Warning: INSERT command denied to user 'dbo256360593'@'74.208.59.62' for table 'watchdog' query: INSERT INTO watchdog (uid, type, message, variables, severity, link, location, referer, hostname, timestamp) VALUES (0, 'php', '%message in %file on line %line.', 'a:4:{s:6:\"%error\";s:12:\"user warning\";s:8:\"%message\";s:440:\"INSERT command denied to user 'dbo256360593'@'74.208.59.62' for table 'accesslog'\nquery: INSERT INTO accesslog (title, path, url, hostname, uid, sid, timer, timestamp) values('Warming Waters Making Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the \\"PDO,\\" Less Predictable', 'node/2581', '', '35.168.111.191', 0, 'e00f29106d6628955550789f87e17b90', 353, 1579727507)\";s:5:\"%file\";s:87:\"/homepages/45/d175009339/htdocs/tahoetowhitn in /homepages/45/d175009339/htdocs/tahoetowhitney.org/includes/database.mysqli.inc on line 134