September-October, & (November!) 2018 California Fires


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By Alex Wierbinski - Posted on 17 November 2018

 

Page begun
September 5, 2018

Updated
November 20th

  2018
  CALIFORNIA'S FALL FIRES

 Below
September-October
&
   
NOVEMBER !?!?! 

The Earliest
News, Smoke, & Fire Info-Resources on this page below begin on

Sept 3, on the bottom of this page

 

Previous Page, covering Our First Fire Season:
FIRES of JULY & AUGUST 2018

 

ALL SMOKE RESOURCES

 

LATEST
OFFICIAL NEWS

Paradise, Ca. destroyed...

Camp Fire,
Calfire

 

Malibu evacuated...
Last Woolsey Fire report, below, when fire reached 96% containment on 11-19

Woolsey Fire,
Calfire

Woolsey Fire,
Ventura County

Both fires started in the high, dry winds during the Red Flag Warning on the 8th.

Best Fire Map
2018 Statewide Fire Map

 

All 2018 High Sierra Fires, Smoke, and Mountain Safety Information

Calendar
Third Week of November

 

FIRE NEWS
ROUNDUP

 November 20

Game Over?
The Next Dangers Begin...

SMOKE DEPARTING
We can see that the current WebSky Smoke Forecast predicts that winds associated with the Cold Front forecast to hit Northern California this evening and tomorrow morning will finally begin blowing the smoke cover off of Northern California, and out of the Valley this morning at 10:00 am. Both should be substantially clear of smoke, for the first time in 12 days, by nine this evening.

Strange Times, Indeed
This storm looks powerful enough to both put out the fire, as well as clear the smoke. We are also looking at the strange possibility of the pre-storm winds firing-up the fire intensity, before the precipitation-power of the storm itself puts the fire out, which it looks more than capable of doing, which brings up the next threat, that of the fire damaged terrain coming off the mountains with the runoff from this powerful little storm.

Transitions of Warnings
Fire & Smoke to Flood and Winter Storm Watches
We're now seeing an instant transition of our last eighteen days of Fire and Smoke Warnings to Flash Flood and Mudslide-Avalance Dangers created by the still-ongoing damage from this epic, late-season Mega-Fire, as a late-November storm approaches from out of the Southwest. Damn Strange Times.

The New Ab-Normal
We are literally, instantly, shifting from one weather extreme to another, from a profound Record Mega-Fire & Record Smoke (in November!) to the more, "typical" type of Flash Flood and Winter Storm Watches that we would normally expect of November. In a day.

This sucker looks like it's going to put some feet of snow across the Sierra Crest. Run the snow model, and see for yourself.

 

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
Camp Fire over Week

Flood Forecast

 

WINTER STORM WATCH

Winter Storm Watch Forecast

 

Anticipate Mountain Pass/Road Closures with Impending Storms

High Sierra
Road Information

 

SMOKE HAZARD WARNING
SAN J VALLEY

More

Last, "Haze," Smoke Forecast


All Fed Fire Info
Inciweb

All State Fire Info
Calfire

 November 20

CAMP FIRE

Camp Fire,
Calfire

CAMP FIRE NEWS

Chico Enterprise Record Fire Section

Sac Bee Fire Section

 

Latest Fire Information

CAMP FIRE INCIDENT UPDATE

151,373 acres + 373,  70% contained  +4% containment

3 injuries  79 civilian fatalities,  +2

12,637 residences, +924,   483 commercial structures burned   +11

+/- changes measured since the 19th

 

TOP

 

FIRE NEWS
ROUNDUP

 

November 19

ALL SMOKE RESOURCES

Two Sat Views

Winds Preceed Rains

Winds from the approaching fronts have begun to disturbe the inversion-trapped smoke filling the Valley and much of Northern California, bringing particulate levels down most everywhere, as the smoke begins escaping its atmospheric trap.

Nonetheless, this nasty smoke covering most of the Valley and Northern California is still at hazardous levels, and will continue to require respiratory protection until it's finally, and fully dissipaited.

 

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
Camp Fire over Weekend

Forecast

SMOKE HAZARD WARNING
SAN J VALLEY

More

November 19

RAIN on the WAY

No precipitation is expected until Wendsday, beginning at Midnight: (Precip Animation).

Between four and five inches of rain could fall on the area of the Camp Fire by next Saturday, if today's seven-day rain chart is correct.

Weather Page: Rain Charts, Animations, & more
(Check out the various weather models you can run...)

 November 19

CAMP FIRE

Camp Fire,
Calfire

FIRE NEWS

Chico Enterprise Record Fire Section

Sac Bee Fire Section

 

Latest Fire Information

CAMP FIRE INCIDENT UPDATE

151,000 acres +3,000,  66% contained  +11% containment

3 injuries  77 civilian fatalities,  +6

11,713 residences, +1869,   472 commercial structures burned   +136

+/- changes measured since the 17th

 

 

November 19

The Last
 WOOLSEY FIRE

Report

The Woolsey Fire is approaching full containment, and the majority of activity is now, "mop up and patrol," to prevent gusts from the approaching storms from reinvigorating Woolsey, or sparking other fires as Woolsey approachs full containment and control.

 

Woolsey Fire, Calfire

FIRE NEWS

Malibu News, ABC7 LA

 

Latest Fire Information

WOOLSEY FIRE INCIDENT UPDATE

96,949 acres, -1413,  94% contained, +12% containment

3 injuries, +0,  3 civilian fatalities, +0

+/- changes measured since the 17th

 

TOP

FIRE NEWS
ROUNDUP

November 17

HEAVY SMOKE
The Skies of Mordor

Myth
The skies over Northern California look like they've come out of the misty memory of myth, Mordor, or legend, or a very major modern disaster on an epic scale. Recently, it seems only major volcanic blow-outs have had such a vast effect, with the volcanos of Iceland, Mt. Pinatubo, and Mount St. Helens similairly darkening the skies. Our problems here are much more complex.

Reality
The smoke is a result of fires, that are a result of long, slow changes in our weather and temperatures, which is the product of our own decisions. The freeking volcanoes just blow up. We slowly drain man & nature until one or the other, or both, implode, and catch on fire like a dumpster, along the way...

NASTIEST EVER
Then, to top-off the injury of this Dire Fire with the physical insults from the smoke, the same weird, warm November weather contributing to this ultra-late season fire is now working to trap all the smoke from the Camp Fire in the Valley. Jeeez! This is as nasty as I've ever seen sustained wildfire smoke in California.

And Nastier Yet
The smoke appears to be dissapating at a slower rate than the fire is adding to it, for a number of days, which has had the apparent effect of thickening the smoke over time.

Good Air
Yet, conditions at Lake Tahoe and points South along the Sierra Crest and its East Flank are pristine.

ALL SMOKE RESOURCES

Two Sat Views

Winds Preceed Rains

RED FLAG WARNING
Camp Fire over Weekend

Forecast

SMOKE HAZARD WARNING
SAN J VALLEY

RAIN on the WAY

No precipitation is expected until next Tuesday (Precip Animation).

Between four and five inches of rain will fall on the area of the Camp Fire by next Saturday, if today's seven-day rain chart is correct.

Weather Page: Rain Charts, Animations, & more

November 17

CAMP FIRE

Camp Fire,
Calfire

FIRE NEWS

Chico Enterprise Record Fire Section

Sac Bee Fire Section

 

Latest Fire Information

CAMP FIRE INCIDENT UPDATE

148,000 acres +6,000,  55% contained  +10% containment

3 injuries  71 civilian fatalities,  +8

9,844 residences, +0,   336 commercial structures burned   +0

+/- changes measured since the 16th

 

 WOOLSEY FIRE

The Woolsey Fire is approaching containment, and most activity is now, "mop up and patrol," to prevent gusts from reinvigorating Woolsey, or sparking other fires as they approach full containment and control.

 

Woolsey Fire, Calfire

FIRE NEWS

Malibu News, ABC7 LA

 

Latest Fire Information

WOOLSEY FIRE INCIDENT UPDATE

98,362 acres, +0,  82% contained, +13% containment

3 injuries, +0,  3 civilian fatalities, +0

TOP

 

FIRE NEWS
ROUNDUP

November 16

Fire, Death, & Smoke

Huge jump in number of missing in Camp Fire to 630.

Profound smoke covering Northern California, San Joaquin Valley, Delta, and Bay Area.

No precipitation is expected until 6 pm next Tuesday, and the forecast precip has strengthened (better than weakening!) since yesterday.

CAMP FIRE

Camp Fire,
Calfire

FIRE NEWS

630 Listed as Missing
A list of those still missing in Camp Fire: 630 names and counting,
Enterprise Record, November 16, 2018.

Camp Fire Friday update: Toll rises, evacuees face hardships,
Enterprise Record, November 16, 2018.

Chico Enterprise Record Fire Section

Sac Bee Fire Section

 

Latest Fire Information

CAMP FIRE INCIDENT UPDATE

142,000 acres +2,000,  45% contained  +5% containment

3 injuries  63 civilian fatalities,  +7

9,844 residences, +21804,   336 commercial structures burned   +76

+/- changes measured since the 15th

 WOOLSEY FIRE

Woolsey Fire, Calfire

FIRE NEWS

Malibu News, ABC7 LA

 

Latest Fire Information

WOOLSEY FIRE INCIDENT UPDATE

98,362 acres, +0,  69% contained, +12% containment

3 injuries, 3 civilian fatalities   +1

616 destroyed (estimate), +181,   183 damaged,  +87

+/- changes measured since the 15th

 

TOP

November 15

 

FIRE NEWS
ROUNDUP

Calmer Air, along with Cooler Daytime Temps and a bit warmer nights, have brought a bit better conditions for the firefighters on the front lines.

 

No precipitation is expected until next Tuesday.

November 15

 CAMP FIRE

Camp Fire

FIRE NEWS

Chico Enterprise Record Fire Section

Sac Bee Fire Section

 

Latest Fire Information

CAMP FIRE INCIDENT UPDATE

140,000 acres +15,000,  40% contained  +15% containment

3 injuries  56 civilian fatalities,  +14

8,756 residences, +2204,   260 commercial structures burned   =

+/- changes measured since the 13th

 

  WOOLSEY FIRE

Woolsey Fire

FIRE NEWS

Malibu News, ABC7 LA

 

Latest Fire Information

WOOLSEY FIRE INCIDENT UPDATE

98,362 acres, +7,048,  57% contained, +22% containment

3 injuries, 2 civilian fatalities   =

435 destroyed (estimate), +69,   96 damaged,  +94

+/- changes measured since the 13th

 

HEAVY SMOKE 
Smoke Fills the San Joaquin Valley
GOES E GeoColor True Color daytime, multispectral IR at night

ALL SMOKE RESOURCES

MODIS
November 15, 2018

ALL SATELLITES

 

 TOP

November 13

FIRE NEWS
ROUNDUP

The Camp Fire still growing in size and casualtiy count, while the Woolsey Fire is coming under greater containment and shrinking. The behavior of the Wind and Weather is crucial to the evolution of both.

 

Latest Fire Information

CAMP FIRE INCIDENT UPDATE

125,000 acres - 25% contained

3 injuries - 42 civilian fatalities

6,552 residences, 260 commercial structures burned

 

Woolsey Fire

FIRE NEWS

LA Times Local Section

 

Latest Fire Information

WOOLSEY FIRE INCIDENT UPDATE

91,314 acres - 35% contained

3 injuries - 2 civilian fatalities

435 destroyed (estimate) - 2 damaged

 

 

 

November 12

 

CAMP FIRE INCIDENT UPDATE

113,000 acres - 25% contained

3 injuries - 29 civilian fatalities

6,453 residences, 260 commercial structures burned



WOOLSEY FIRE INCIDENT UPDATE


91,572 acres - 20% contained

3 injuries - 2 civilian fatalities

370 destroyed (estimate) - 2 damaged

 

 TOP

 November 11

Serious Threats
The potential for these fires to blow further, even wildly out of control, rides on the wings of the next few day's winds, and exactly what they do before the firemen can throw containment lines around these bad boys.

Red Flag Warnings
Red Flag Warnings currently cover both fire's far-separated regions through Monday up North, and through Tuesday down South, as do smoke and air quality warnings for everyone around or downwind of these fires.

These conditions also threaten to instantly blow any additional fires into major threats.

Sunday the 11th:

CAMP FIRE

Most Destructive Fire in California History,

109,000 acres - 25% contained.

23 Fatalities

6,453 Structures Burned.

Harrowing escapes, heartbreaking loss in Northern California,
AP, November 11, 2018.

 

 

WOOLSEY FIRE

Nov 11 Incident Update PDF

83,275 acres, 10% contained.

Two Fatalities.

177 Structures Lost.

 

 

November 9

 

1,000 homes burn, multiple deaths in Paradise...East Chico being evacuated,
Chico Enterprise-Record, November 9, 2018, 9:56 am.

Camp Fire,
Sac Bee, Nov 9, 8:50 am.

 

Woolsey Fire,
LA Times, Nov. 9, 9:20 am.

 

Our Situation
High Sierra Forest Succession Disaster Looms (Is here...)

 

November 8
FIRES STARTED
Early November (feels like June-July)
Second Major Fire Season of 2018 begins...

Paradise, Ca. destroyed...

Camp Fire, Calfire

 

Malibu evacuated...

Woolsey Fire, Calfire

Woolsey Fire, Ventura County

 

 

TOP

 

 

November 8

West Flanks
of the
North and Central Sierra Nevada

RED FLAG WARNING

HEAVY WINDS

We've had no precipitation of note since May, except the brief deluge on October 2nd (calendar).

We've had warm, temperate and generally gentle weather through all of October, since the heat, heavy smoke, and firestorms of Summer finally tapered off through September (calendar).

November is continuing this trend...with a powerful, "Blob," in Gulf Alaska, and a strong, persistant ridge of High Pressure hugging the US West Coast...

 

 TOP

 

 

October 31

 

Finishing-off a warm and temperate October...

Halloween

RED FLAG WARNING

Weather Notes

1> RED FLAG WARNING,
NW & Central-West Sierra

WINTER OMENS
BIG BLOB
2> We've had a Big Blob off NW USA, now up in Gulf Alaska, for a while now.

October 2018: The Blob is Back?

SST & El Nino Data

PERSISTANT RIDGE
Now, a Big High has been setting up in a position with behavior reminiscent of the Big Blocking Ridge that characterized the depths of the drough in '15.

The Big Blocking Ridge an Existential Threat

North Pacific Maps

This combination of factors is indicative of a dry Winter in the Sierra, if they persist, even if a vast, powerful El Nino does form up.
The High, when in the proper, "resiliant ridge," formation, will deflect the tropical moisture transport mechanisms carrying supercharged tropical moisture from the El Nino to the North and South of the Sierra, and much of the NW of the US, if it sets up like it did during 2015-16...

Is it?
This set-up is looking famaliar...like a, "NEW NORMAL," and we'll see if it holds, and how it develops.

Last Massive El Nino Foreshadows Magnitude of Next

Earlier
Best 2018 Weather Assessment at the Footstep of Fall

Trail News, Oct 30, 2018

 

TOP 

 

October 16

 

Status of the High Sierra, October 16, 2018

 

7 Day Probability of Freezing Temperatures

 

 

October 10

 

Fine backpacking conditions...

Temps have been rising and falling in a gentle cycle between warm and cool since the middle of September, without generating heat waves nor early freezes. Humidities have been elevated.

We've seen indications of potential heat waves and possible cold snaps, but neither have manifested themselves, so far. Both are still possible.

 

HURRICANE MICHAEL

National Hurricane Center

Michael

Two Best Sat Views

GOES-East CONUS View - GeoColor

SSEC Geostationary Sat Imagery

 

TOP

 

September 16

EXELLENT HIGH SIERRA BACKPACKING CONDITIONS
Fires Suppressed, Smoke Light or Cleared, Mosquitoes Diminished, Temps looking very comfortable-cool.

 

September 8


DONNELL FIRE
CURRENT SITUATION: Effective Immediately
The Pacific Crest Trail is open to public use.
(Sonora to Ebbetts Passes)

Kennedy Meadows, Sonora Pass, & Emigrant Wilderness OPEN & CLEAR

 

 

September 7th

Boot Fire, Hwy 395 closed, Walker to Hwy 108 junction

Caltrans Hwy 395

Note

PCT between Sonora and Ebbetts Passes, along with the whole Carson Iceberg Wilderness are still closed by the Donnell Fire.
Donnell Fire Closures

 

 

September 5th

Delta Fire, started, near Lake Shasta

 

 

September 4th

Boot Fire, started, base of E Flank, @ junction Hwys 108-395

 

September 3rd

North Fire, started, West Flank, Hwy 50

 

 

 

All-More Smoke Resources

 

 

 

Previous Fire & Smoke Reports

Donnell Fire

Ferguson, Carr, & Mendo

 

TOP

 

Originally Published
2018-09-05 18:17:42

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