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2018 Climate Change News: North China Plain Rapidly Becoming Uninhabitable | High Sierra Backpacker

2018 Climate Change News: North China Plain Rapidly Becoming Uninhabitable


Alex Wierbinski's picture

By Alex Wierbinski - Posted on 16 August 2018

ECO-CRASHING NEWS

North China Plain Rapidly Becoming Uninhabitable

Along with South Asia & Persian Gulf: Deadly Heat Rising Rapidly around the World

 

China could face deadly heat waves due to climate change,
MIT News, July 31, 2018.

“This spot is just going to be the hottest spot for deadly heat waves in the future, especially under climate change,” says Professor Elfatih Eltahir."Image, thanks to MIT, “This spot is just going to be the hottest spot for deadly heat waves in the future, especially under climate change.”

North China Plain [NCP].

Incidence Rate Ratio [IRR] per degree Celsius.

Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 4.5 is a scenario that stabilizes radiative forcing at 4.5 Watts per meter squared in the year 2100.

4.5 & 8.5 are higher levels of energy demand and CO2 production.

The Map Targets temp outcomes of the various RCP scenarios by 2100.

 

MAIN POINTS

"One of the world’s most densely populated regions may push the boundaries of habitability by the end of this century, study finds."

Habitability
"Research has shown that beyond a certain threshold of temperature and humidity, a person cannot survive unprotected in the open for extended periods..."

Worse Polluted People to Suffer the Worse?
"China’s most populous and agriculturally important region could face such deadly conditions repeatedly, suffering the most damaging heat effects, at least as far as human life is concerned, of any place on the planet."

North China Plain
"...the risk of deadly heat waves is significantly increased because of intensive irrigation in this relatively dry but highly fertile region, known as the North China Plain — a region whose role in that country is comparable to that of the Midwest in the U.S. That increased vulnerability to heat arises because the irrigation exposes more water to evaporation, leading to higher humidity in the air than would otherwise be present and exacerbating the physiological stresses of the temperature."

Greatest Risk to Humans on the Planet
"...findings show that the North China Plain, or NCP, faces the greatest risks to human life from rising temperatures, of any location on Earth."

The Wet Bulb of Death
"...determining survivability in hot weather, Eltahir explains, involves the combination of heat and humidity, as determined by a measurement called the wet-bulb temperature."

95 F is Six Hours of Life
"At a wet-bulb temperature of 35 degrees Celsius (95 F), a healthy person may not be able to survive outdoors for more than six hours..."

North China Plain hitting 95 between 2017 & 2100
(under current CO2 production)

Note
What if the current CO2 production and climate models are wrong by half?

Climate Models Underestimating Scale of Change: Twice What Climate Models Predict?

Future of North China Plain
Most Deadly
“This spot is just going to be the hottest spot for deadly heat waves in the future, especially under climate change.”

Running Up to the Death Zone Now
"There has been a substantial increase in extreme heat waves in the NCP already in the last 50 years, the study shows. Warming in this region over that period has been nearly double the global average — 0.24 degrees Celsius per decade versus 0.13. In 2013, extreme heat waves in the region persisted for up to 50 days, and maximum temperatures topped 38 C in places. Major heat waves occurred in 2006 and 2013, breaking records. Shanghai, East China’s largest city, broke a 141-year temperature record in 2013, and dozens died."

 

The Bottom Line
The conclusion is that two major centers of global population, the North China Plain and South Asia referred to above and linked to below, along with the Persian Gulf area holding a significant percentage of our planet's energy supplies, are all going to pass the point of habitability this century.

 

Related Research from MIT

Uninhabitable South Asia

Deadly heat waves could hit South Asia this century,
MIT News, August 2, 2017.

"Without action, climate change could devastate a region home to one-fifth of humanity, study finds."

 

Uninhabitable Persian Gulf

Study: Persian Gulf could experience deadly heat,
MIT News, October 26, 2015.

"Detailed climate simulation shows a threshold of survivability could be crossed without mitigation measures."

 

 

References, North China Plain

North China Plain,
Smiling Globe.

Population North China Plain, 164,823,220

 

North China Plain,
The Diplomat, July 18, 2018.

"...the water table dropping by around a meter each year, and an estimated 70 percent of groundwater too polluted for human contact."

 

 

Related Research

Regional BBQs

KARMA IS COMING: Global Warming Will Fry the Whole Middle East

Melbourne and Sydney should prepare for 123 degrees F.

Already Hot Lands Getting Much Hotter: Florides to FRY in HEATWAVES

Increasing Heatwaves

CONSEQUENCES of IRRESPONSIBLE GROWTH: The Rise of Heat Waves

Climate-Driven Anthropocene: Killing Ourselves and Everything Else with Heatwaves

 

CLIMATE WARMING NEWS: Heat Dangers Rising, Will Drive Thousands to ER

 

 

It’s Happening Right Now

The Hottest Summer of 2018: Killing Ourselves and Everything Else

 

 

Recent
Climate Model Research

Climate models cannot keep up with our rate of CO2 production,
and its associated rates of climate and ecosystem degradation.

Worse models the Best?

Two Degrees Already Baked In

Improved Models Show Grim Future

Four Degrees by 2084

 

 

 

The Bottom LIne

Climate: "Existential Threat" by 2050

Beyond Catastrophic

 

 

 

 

ALL ECO-CRASH NEWS 

August 2018 News of Man & Nature

 

 

 

 

 

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