February 2019 NOAA: Weak El Nino Here? To Persist?


Alex Wierbinski's picture

By Alex Wierbinski - Posted on 15 February 2019

WEATHER TRENDS

EL Nino Conditions Rise
Sea Surface Temps of Dec 2018 compared to 1981-2010 period
Dec 2018 SST compared to 1981-2010 period, NOAA, Climate.gov, NNVL
Geo-Polar SST of El Nino Zone, NOAA, Climate.gov, NNVL

 

Weak El Nino Here? To Persist?

NOAA announces the arrival of El Nino,
El Nino likely to be weak with little influence on weather through early spring.
NOAA, Feburary 14, 2019.

More

NOAA Monthl Report, PDF

Latest NWS CPC Analysis

 

Backpacker's Weather Page
El Nino Information

Track It
Climate Snapshots: Equatorial Sea Surface Temperatures through 2018

 

MAIN POINTS

Weak El Nino Forecast
“El Nino conditions across the equatorial Pacific have come together, and we can now announce its arrival.”

Anomalies of Sea Surface Temps, 2nd Week of February, 2019
NOAA Sea Surface Temperature anomalies of Feb 2019, compared to '85 to 2012.

The anomalies above are when today's temps are compared to the same dates between 1985 and 2012, an era already significantly warmed-up by CO2 forcing. We should compare this year to the reference period spanning from the '50s to the 80s. to really show the extreme extent of the changes we are experiencing...

Current Status & Recent Trends
Hot Water in the Pacific

Ghost-Like El Nino
“NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued an El Nino Advisory today, indicating the climate pattern has taken effect and is likely to continue through the spring. While the El Nino is expected to be weak, it may bring wetter conditions across the southern half of the U.S. during the coming months.”

I Fully Agree with NOAA:
“While sea surface temperatures are above average, current observations and climate models indicate that this El Nino will be weak, meaning we do not expect significant global impacts through the remainder of winter and into the spring.”

El Nino Advisory

 

Bottom Line

Hot & Cold Water Activity

A recent pulse of El Nino-like activity rose up and moved West, then quickly abated. Yet this pulse likely played/is playing a role in our current flurry of Tropical Transport Mechanism activity, which is rooted in superstorms off the NE coast of Indonesia, which this last pulse of hot equatorial water may have added to.

Information & Tools
Hot Water in the Pacific

If there is any sustained El Nino activity, it looks like it will be weak, to me, too. Conditions have kept a big low churning off Peru, which seems to churn up deep, cold water that forstalls the consolidation of El Ninos, but that Low’s recently weakened…

When the next real El Nino gets going, we will have no doubt about its strength.

 

Something New

Blob? Northern El Nino?

The "Northern" El Nino?

October 2018: The Blob is Back?

 

Backpacker's Weather Page

El Nino Information

 

 

Video
ENSO Movie

 

 

 

Last Year

12-7-18
Anticipated El Nino not happening…
(like I said...)

 

Nov 8, 2018
Components and Nature of Abnormal Conditions
Anticipated El Nino is not happening

 

9-5-18
PREDICTION

“The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center puts the likelihood of El Niño at 60 percent this fall and 70 percent this winter.”

 

 

Sea Surface Temperatures
Recently

Scripps Pier Records Highest Ocean Temperature in its 102-year History

 

2018, Hot Times in SoCal: Record Warm Waters off Southern California

 

2018 Sea Surface Temperatures Hottest Ever

 

 

 

 

El Nino-La Nina, Recently

12 October 2017 El Nino & La Nina Report

 

2018 Global Weather Instability Deepens, La Nina Strengthens

 

9 November 2017 El Nino & La Nina Report

 

 

FEB 1 2016 BACKPACKER ALERT: Winter to Spring Status under El Nino

 

 

Global Warming News, Recent 2015 Huge El Nino: Shifted Global Temps into New Gear

 

2015 WEATHER NEWS: California Drought, Fire, El Nino and Floods?

 

 

Last Massive El Nino Foreshadows Magnitude of Next

 

 

Trail News Forum

Trail News Daily, Feb 2019

 

 

 

February 2019 Trail News

 

 

 

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February 2019, NOAA, El Nino, report, forecast, history, resources, links, information

 

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