Warning: INSERT command denied to user 'dbo256360593'@'' for table 'watchdog' query: INSERT INTO watchdog (uid, type, message, variables, severity, link, location, referer, hostname, timestamp) VALUES (0, 'php', '%message in %file on line %line.', 'a:4:{s:6:\"%error\";s:12:\"user warning\";s:8:\"%message\";s:404:\"INSERT command denied to user 'dbo256360593'@'' for table 'captcha_sessions'\nquery: INSERT into captcha_sessions (uid, sid, ip_address, timestamp, form_id, solution, status, attempts) VALUES (0, 'a86fcecf725d3cb9a6ec80e9a7b63c32', '', 1594728592, 'user_login_block', 'f50032837ea136bdc3680417d81f6544', 0, 0)\";s:5:\"%file\";s:88:\"/homepages/45/d175009339/htdocs/tahoetowhitney.org/sites/all/modules/captcha/captcha.inc\";s: in /homepages/45/d175009339/htdocs/tahoetowhitney.org/includes/database.mysqli.inc on line 134
February 2019 NOAA: Weak El Nino Here? To Persist?

February 2019 NOAA: Weak El Nino Here? To Persist?

Alex Wierbinski's picture

By Alex Wierbinski - Posted on 15 February 2019

October 1, 2019 Update


EL Nino Conditions Rise
Sea Surface Temps of Dec 2018 compared to 1981-2010 period
Dec 2018 SST compared to 1981-2010 period, NOAA, Climate.gov, NNVL
Geo-Polar SST of El Nino Zone, NOAA, Climate.gov, NNVL


Weak El Nino Here? To Persist?

NOAA announces the arrival of El Nino,
El Nino likely to be weak with little influence on weather through early spring.
NOAA, Feburary 14, 2019.


NOAA Monthl Report, PDF

Latest NWS CPC Analysis


Backpacker's Weather Page
El Nino Information

Track It
Climate Snapshots: Equatorial Sea Surface Temperatures through 2018



Weak El Nino Forecast
“El Nino conditions across the equatorial Pacific have come together, and we can now announce its arrival.”

Anomalies of Sea Surface Temps, 2nd Week of February, 2019
NOAA Sea Surface Temperature anomalies of Feb 2019, compared to '85 to 2012.

The anomalies above are when today's temps are compared to the same dates between 1985 and 2012, an era already significantly warmed-up by CO2 forcing. We should compare this year to the reference period spanning from the '50s to the 80s. to really show the extreme extent of the changes we are experiencing...

Current Status & Recent Trends
Hot Water in the Pacific

Ghost-Like El Nino
“NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued an El Nino Advisory today, indicating the climate pattern has taken effect and is likely to continue through the spring. While the El Nino is expected to be weak, it may bring wetter conditions across the southern half of the U.S. during the coming months.”

I Fully Agree with NOAA:
“While sea surface temperatures are above average, current observations and climate models indicate that this El Nino will be weak, meaning we do not expect significant global impacts through the remainder of winter and into the spring.”

El Nino Advisory


Bottom Line

Hot & Cold Water Activity

A recent pulse of El Nino-like activity rose up and moved West, then quickly abated. Yet this pulse likely played/is playing a role in our current flurry of Tropical Transport Mechanism activity, which is rooted in superstorms off the NE coast of Indonesia, which this last pulse of hot equatorial water may have added to.

Information & Tools
Hot Water in the Pacific

If there is any sustained El Nino activity, it looks like it will be weak, to me, too. Conditions have kept a big low churning off Peru, which seems to churn up deep, cold water that forstalls the consolidation of El Ninos, but that Low’s recently weakened…

When the next real El Nino gets going, we will have no doubt about its strength.


Something New

Blob? Northern El Nino?

The "Northern" El Nino?

October 2018: The Blob is Back?


Backpacker's Weather Page

El Nino Information



ENSO Movie




Last Year

Anticipated El Nino not happening…
(like I said...)


Nov 8, 2018
Components and Nature of Abnormal Conditions
Anticipated El Nino is not happening



“The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center puts the likelihood of El Niño at 60 percent this fall and 70 percent this winter.”



Sea Surface Temperatures

Scripps Pier Records Highest Ocean Temperature in its 102-year History


2018, Hot Times in SoCal: Record Warm Waters off Southern California


2018 Sea Surface Temperatures Hottest Ever





El Nino-La Nina, Recently

12 October 2017 El Nino & La Nina Report


2018 Global Weather Instability Deepens, La Nina Strengthens


9 November 2017 El Nino & La Nina Report



FEB 1 2016 BACKPACKER ALERT: Winter to Spring Status under El Nino



Global Warming News, Recent 2015 Huge El Nino: Shifted Global Temps into New Gear


2015 WEATHER NEWS: California Drought, Fire, El Nino and Floods?



Last Massive El Nino Foreshadows Magnitude of Next



Trail News Forum

Trail News Daily, Feb 2019




February 2019 Trail News




Nature News


Climate Destruction News



Bee News

Bear News

Spider Forum

Bird News

Small Mammals

Frogs and Reptiles

Butterfly News


Health and Fitness

Mountain Safety

Mosquito News

Female Trail

High Sierra History


Astro-Phys, Space, & Science News

High Sierra Geology News

Fish, Oceans, & Water News



All High Sierra News





February 2019, NOAA, El Nino, report, forecast, history, resources, links, information


Powered by Drupal, an open source content management system

Latest News: RSS FEED

Syndicate content

Support Tahoe to Whitney

The Tahoe to Whitney Trail Guide and Magazine are walked, written, funded, and supported by my efforts, with the help of kindred spirits and my sister.

We offer valuable Trail Guide, Skills, Weather, News and Analysis.

My goal is to get you out to see your natural and social potential. Help me keep this unique resource accessible and expanding towards its potential. We've a lot of miles to cover ahead...

If you feel these efforts are valuable, I'm cordially inviting you to support them, here:



I am currently working towards publishing the completed guide between Tahoe & Yosemite as an e-book, while converting this "blog" to a fine magazine format. You will like the results! Help Tahoe to Whitney reach its potential!


Why Support Tahoe to Whitney?
Mission Statement

Warning: INSERT command denied to user 'dbo256360593'@'' for table 'watchdog' query: INSERT INTO watchdog (uid, type, message, variables, severity, link, location, referer, hostname, timestamp) VALUES (0, 'php', '%message in %file on line %line.', 'a:4:{s:6:\"%error\";s:12:\"user warning\";s:8:\"%message\";s:399:\"INSERT command denied to user 'dbo256360593'@'' for table 'accesslog'\nquery: INSERT INTO accesslog (title, path, url, hostname, uid, sid, timer, timestamp) values('February 2019 NOAA: Weak El Nino Here? To Persist?', 'node/2266', '', '', 0, 'a86fcecf725d3cb9a6ec80e9a7b63c32', 424, 1594728592)\";s:5:\"%file\";s:87:\"/homepages/45/d175009339/htdocs/tahoetowhitney.org/modules/statistics/statistics.module\"; in /homepages/45/d175009339/htdocs/tahoetowhitney.org/includes/database.mysqli.inc on line 134