Hidden Trends in our Changing Global Climate Revealed


Alex Wierbinski's picture

By Alex Wierbinski - Posted on 14 November 2018

CLIMATE CHANGES DRAMATICALLY UNDERESTIMATED

Statistical Reanalysis Reveals-Explains Anomalous Weather Trends

Overlooked trends in annual precipitation reveal underestimated risks worldwide,
University of Maine, November 13, 2018.

MAIN POINTS

Overlooked Weather Trends
“A reanalysis of worldwide annual trends in precipitation demonstrates that risk to human and environmental systems has been underestimated… they found more than 38 percent of the global population and over 44 percent of land area have been experiencing overlooked precipitation trends.”

Standard Analysis
Performed using, “...the probability distribution function (PDF), where the frequency with which precipitation amounts within a certain interval occur and the probability of exceedance (non-exceedance) above (below) a given threshold can be readily estimated.”

New Analysis using Quantile Regression
“...an innovative trend typology using quantile regression and offer a comprehensive analysis of overlooked trends worldwide.”

Tails, Rather than Averages
“...rather than focusing on mean and median trends alone, extends analyses to the upper and lower tails of the PDF to assess the compounded influence of risk and variability at various thresholds.”

Results Reveal Overlooked Trends

Extreme Wet & Increased Variability
“in parts of the midwestern United States, northern Canada, south-central Asia and Indonesia — regions that are home to nearly 860 million people.”

Decreased Risk of Wet Conditions”
“...particularly in southern Africa, South America and parts of northern Asia, indicating a decrease in the incidence of high annual totals.”

Increased Risk of Dry Conditions
“...in parts of southern Europe, the U.S. West, southern Canada and northern Africa.

Generally
“More than 40 percent of global rainfed agricultural areas are exposed to overlooked trends including parts of southern and western Africa and the midwest U.S.”

Conclusion
“Our results show that significant population and land areas on the global scale correspond with changes in precipitation risk and variability, and are mischaracterized by conventional approaches.”

 

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