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Computer Model: More CO2 than ever before in 3 million years

Computer Model: More CO2 than ever before in 3 million years


Alex Wierbinski's picture

By Alex Wierbinski - Posted on 03 April 2019

 

ANTHROPOCENE-CRASHING CLIMATE & ECOLOGY

Breaking Out of Nature’s Boxes:
The Past Shows Big Trouble Ahead

More CO2 than ever before in 3 million years, shows unprecedented computer simulation,
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), April 3, 2019.

MAIN POINTS

Ascertained
“...coevolution of climate, ice sheets, and carbon cycle over the past 3 million years.”

Big Human Changes
“CO2 greenhouse gas amounts in the atmosphere are likely higher today than ever before in the past 3 million years.”

It Matters
“...we can now show in computer simulations that changes in CO2 levels were a main driver of the ice ages, together with variations of how the Earth's orbits around the sun, the so-called Milankovitch cycles.”

“...a strong sensitivity of the Earth system to relatively small variations in atmospheric CO2. As fascinating as this is, it is also worrying.”

Beyond Nature’s Limits
"It seems we're now pushing our home planet beyond any climatic conditions experienced during the entire current geological period, the Quaternary."

“...the modern climate change we see is big, really big; even by standards of Earth history.”

How
Amazing Big Data
“...the researchers reproduced the main features of natural climate variability over the last few million years with an efficient numerical model - a computer simulation based on astronomical and geological data and algorithms representing the physics and chemistry of our planet. The simulation was driven only by well-known changes in the ways the Earth circles the sun, the so-called orbital cycles, and different scenarios for slowly varying boundary conditions, namely CO2 outgassing from volcanoes.”

Models reflect Reality
“These are actually not just simulations: we compared our results with the hard data from the deep sea, and they prove to be in good agreement.”

 

Bottom Line?

These scientists have ascertained the role of CO2 in controlling climate and weather over geological time scales, are saying that the atmosphere and long term cycles of Ice Ages and weather are very sensitive to these CO2 levels, and that we have pushed CO2 far beyond any scenario seen over the past three million years.

In layman’s terms, it means that we have radically unbalanced the circle of conditions that have controlled the cycles of climate and weather over the past three million years.

We have unbalanced the weather and climate on this planet, and the consequences are cascading through its ecologies.

Practically speaking, that means that the seasons, their beginnings, endings, their characters, and their lengths have all changed, and these changes are accelerating, and deepening, with their effects being seen on weather and ecosystems everywhere. Summer in the whole Western US is hotter, drier, and longer, while Spring and Fall, and especially Winter, have all warmed, dried, and shortened.

The relationship between the timing and temperature of the weather, and all of the life dependent upon it, has become unbalanced. Life is strained, and straining more every year.

These changes in the fundamental dynamics of Northern Hemisphere weather are actively manifesting themselves in the contemporary data through the trends of steady warming and drying, punctuated by the rapid shifts from record level wet to record level dry extremes we’ve been experiencing.

Experience shows the typical prevailing directions of the seasonal winds shifting, bringing different types of weather at different times. The abnormal has become normal, and the normal cycles are very rare, and possibly approaching the point of extinction, being the extinction of these ancient weather patterns themselves, which will also bring down much of the life dependent on them, while drastically changing the survivors.

 

Updates

Sept 2019
Greatest CO2 Levels in All Human History

June 2019
Second Fastest, Largest C02 Growth in 2019, Carbon Dioxide Levels Hit Record Peak in May
 

 

The Past as Mirror of Present & Future
Archaeological Climatology
The PETM, Chicxulub, Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event (T-OAE)

 

 

Milankovitch Cycles

Longest Orbital Cycles Proven and Measured; Half-Billion Year Super-Milankowitch Cycles

 

PLANETARY ECOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK: Equatorial Activity and Milankovitch Running the Ice Ages?

 

Potential Confluence of Grand Orbital Cycles with Human Ignorance could End Antarctic Ice,
Back to the Middle Miocene, +14 mya...

 

 

Ice Ages are Over, & were ended by humans first adopting agriculture…

Amazing Ancient Human Climate Interactions

 

 

Crashing through Long Term Tipping Points

Two New Climate Analysis: Short Term, A New Form of Climate Analysis. Long Term: Crashing Through Tipping Points

 

 

Where’s This Going?

What the Climate Models Say

The Classic

 Climate Models Underestimating Scale of Change: Twice What Climate Models Predict?

 

The Standards

Worse models the Best?

Two Degrees Already Baked In

 

Improved Models Show Grim Future

Four Degrees by 2084

 

 

Even Further Back in Time

We have to go way back in time to find examples of our planet having this much CO2 in the atmosphere, and it was a very, very different world...

56-48 million years ago
Lobotomizing the Web of Life: CO2 Increase a Time Machine to the Palogene Era

 

201 Million Years Ago
How do you like your frogs cooked? Self & Slow, or Naturally Quick?
(The Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event (T-OAE))

High CO2 Levels can Destabilize Marine Layer Clouds
(The Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event (T-OAE))

 

When Was That?

Geological Time Scales, US Geo Society.

Geo Time Scales, Wiki.

 

 

 

ECO-CRASH NEWS

 

 

April 2019 News of Man & Nature

 

 

 

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