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Antarctic Ice Cliff Failure Postponed a Century or Two?

Antarctic Ice Cliff Failure Postponed a Century or Two?


Alex Wierbinski's picture

By Alex Wierbinski - Posted on 22 October 2019

 

OCEANS, ICE, WATER, & HEAT

Lots of Water There...
The Getz Ice Shelf to Remain Intact?
The Getz Ice Shelf extends several miles into the ocean from the Getz glacier as it empties into the ocean along the Antarctic coast, NASA / Dick Ewers, Operation Ice Bridge.
The Getz Ice Shelf extends several miles into the ocean from the Getz glacier as it empties into the ocean along the Antarctic coast. The vertical face of the ice shelf is almost 200 feet high and is estimated to extend another 1000 feet below the ocean surface. NASA / Dick Ewers, Operation Ice Bridge.

 

Antarctic Ice Cliff Failure Postponed a Century or Two?

Antarctic Ice Cliffs may Not Contribute to Sea-Level Rise as Much as Predicted,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, October 21, 2019.

MAIN POINT

"...our work shows that cliff failure is probably not the mechanism by which we would get a lot of sea level rise in the near future."

Bottom Line

MICI Disproved
"in the near term"
This research disproves the contentions that Antarctica's Ice Sheet Ice Cliffs have a chance of collapsing in the near term. The contention they could collapse is the conclusion of the, "Marine Ice-Cliff Instability, or MICI Hypothesis.

 

Earlier Research Testing and disproving of the, "Marine Ice-Cliff Instability, or MICI Hypothesis:

Antarctic Ice Cliffs Stable for Now

Collapsing Ice Cliffs May Not Contribute to Sea Level Rise,
Science News, February 6, 2019.

MAIN POINTS

Disproving MICI
"...based on a new statistical analysis showing that such a rapid collapse of marine ice cliffs in Antarctica was extremely unlikely to have happened in the past, even during some of Earth’s warmest episodes over the last 3 million years."

Comparison
The Last Time it was
This Hot
The Middle Miocene
16 Million Years Ago

The MICI Hypothesis
This new research, "...counters a controversial hypothesis that suggests that rising greenhouse gas emissions could destabilize those cliffs and help send sea levels surging by over 2.1 meters by 2100. That figure is nearly double some sea level rise projections for the end of the century." 

No MICI Effect Found
"The MICI hypothesis, the researchers found, wasn’t needed to reproduce any of the past sea level changes during those three time periods." In other words, it was not happening during recent heating events.

MICI Scientists Respond
The scientists behind the MICI hypothesis, "...suggest that’s only because the ice-cliff instability hasn’t really kicked in yet. By 2200, they say, the picture is far less rosy: If greenhouse gas emissions continue on their current track, MICI could help bump up sea level up to as much as 4 meters higher than they were in 2000."

 

THE BOTTOM LINE

Accelerating
The Arctic and Antarctic are not just rapidly transforming their seasonal cycles. The changes in climate, weather, and warming oceans controlling these changes are themselves not only continuing, but accelerating. We are watching, "The End of Cold," everywhere.

Expect the Unexpected
I believe these changes in global seasonal patterns are already warm enough to reveal and release a whole load of otherwise unexpected carbon feedback loops around the whole world, which I believe are going to be sufficient to put us onto a completely different climate and weather trajectory by 2050 than anyone expects today.

Our Titanic Climate
But, it's good that these ice cliffs, being what I refer to as some of the, "deck chairs," on the deck of this, our Earth's, "Titanic," breakdown of traditional climate and weather patterns, will be sticking around for awhile. It looks like these ice cliffs are not going to slide off of our sinking, "ship," quite as quickly as feared by some. But slide off they will, or they will go down with the ship. Either way, they are gone in the slightly-longer, if not the short term.

Delay of Game
These two pieces of research above just put-off the final destruction of our stable Antarctic environment for a century, maybe two. Our trend lines are indisputable. 

Chartology
Heating up Our Planet over the Short, Medium, and Long Terms

The Long Game
That extra time is good for us alive today, but is irrelevant in the grand stretch of geological time. What is relevant is that it may well take hundreds of thousands of years for our current disturbances of the carbon, climate, and weather cycles to settle back down again, and build those ice cliffs back up again, once we stop increasing atmospheric CO2, and us humans restraining ourselves is a long way into our future, if it's even possible at all.

Extremely Long "Recovery" Time

The Human Chicxulub: 100,000 Year Disruption

200,000 Year, "Recovery?"

The Long Rebinding
I am hopeful that the changing nature of our orbital cycles, undulating between roughly half million year periods of warm orbits to half million year periods of cold orbits, will restore the fertility our greed has drained from this planet, once the atmosphere, oceans, and ecosystems rebind all the carbon we've released. 

March 2019
Longest Orbital Cycles Proven and Measured; Half-Billion Year Super-Milankowitch Cycles

Or maybe not...

March 2019
Potential Confluence of Grand Orbital Cycles with Human Ignorance could End Antarctic Ice

 

More
Archaeological Climatology
The PETM, Chicxulub, Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event (T-OAE)

 

TOP

 

Selected
Antarctic Research

July 2019
Thwaites Glacier to be Gone in between 200 & 600 Years

 

May 2019
Much Faster Ross Ice Shelf Melting than Assumed or Expected

 

May 2019
Rapid Degradation of West Antarctic Ice Underway

 

March 2019
Potential Confluence of Grand Orbital Cycles with Human Ignorance could End Antarctic Ice

 

Jan 2019
Once Thought Invincible, East Antarctic Ice Now seen as Vulnerable

 

Dec 2018
2018 Status of All Antarctic Ice: Ice Loss Triples

 

 

Generally
The End of Cold

April 2018
The End of Cold, 2018: Arctic Mountain Glaciers Melting Rapidly

 

Dec 2018
The End of Cold, 2018: Tibet & Andes Glaciers are Going Away, so is their Water

 

Nov 2018
Climate Research, 2018: Extreme Heat Expanding with the End of Cold

 

Sept 2018
The End of Cold, 2018: Ice Caps Racing Away

 

March 2018
Killing the Planet: End of Cold, Glaciers are Crashing

 

Oct 2017
The Trend Continues: Everything Melting, The End of Cold

 

Sept 2017

END OF COLD: Say Goodbye to Permafrost

 

 

 

Fish-Ice-Oceans-Water

News of Man & Nature, October 2019

 

 

 

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More
Nature News

 

Climate Destruction News

 

Trees

Bee News

Bear News

Spider Forum

Bird News

Small Mammals

Frogs and Reptiles

Butterfly News

 

Health and Fitness

Mountain Safety

Mosquito News

Female Trail

High Sierra History

 

Astro-Phys, Space, & Science News

High Sierra Geology News

Fish, Oceans, & Water News

Anthropocene

 

 

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Antarctic, ice cliff, research, disproving, delaying, MICI hypothesis

 

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