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Two New Climate Analysis: Short Term, A New Form of Climate Analysis. Long Term: Crashing Through Tipping Points | High Sierra Backpacker

Two New Climate Analysis: Short Term, A New Form of Climate Analysis. Long Term: Crashing Through Tipping Points

Alex Wierbinski's picture

By Alex Wierbinski - Posted on 16 August 2018



Two New Analysis Predicts Hot Times Ahead in Short and Long Terms

Short Term: A New Form of Climate Analysis,

Long Term: Crashing Through Tipping Points

UPDATE, 1-2020: Tipping Points Falling Like Dominoes


The Short Term

2018-2022 expected to be abnormally hot years,
CNRS, August 14, 2018.


"This summer's world-wide heatwave makes 2018 a particularly hot year."

The "...global warming hiatus."

A New Method of Prediction
"...does not use traditional simulation techniques. Instead, it applies a statistical method to search 20th and 21st century climate simulations made using several reference models to find 'analogues' of current climate conditions and deduce future possibilities."

"The precision and reliability of this probabilistic system proved to be at least equivalent to current methods, particularly for the purpose of simulating the global warming hiatus of the beginning of this century."

Hot Run Coming
"low probability of intense cold events"*
"The new method predicts that mean air temperature may be abnormally high in 2018-2022 – higher than figures inferred from anthropogenic global warming alone. In particular, this is due to a low probability of intense cold events. The phenomenon is even more salient with respect to sea surface temperatures, due to a high probability of heat events, which, in the presence of certain conditions, can cause an increase in tropical storm activity."


* END OF COLD: Say Goodbye to Permafrost

* The End of Cold, 2018: Arctic Mountain Glaciers Melting Rapidly

* Killing the Planet: End of Cold, Glaciers are Crashing

* The Trend Continues: Everything Melting, The End of Cold


The Great Northern Hemisphere Heatwave of 2018

August 2
Record 2018 Death Valley & The Northern Hemispheric Heat Wave of 2018


July 30
The Hottest Summer of 2018: Killing Ourselves and Everything Else


July 28
NORTH HEMISPHERE HEATWAVE, Everything Frying: Three Articles, UPDATED


July 6
The N Hemisphere is on Fire





The Long Term

Crashing through Multiple Tipping Points?

Researchers suggest we could tip into a hothouse Earth—here’s what that means,
Ars Technica, August 12, 2018.


Current Environment
"...from a geologist's perspective, even current conditions are part of an ice age, since large ice sheets exist at the poles."

The Other Environmental Extreme
"...hothouse conditions, which the Earth has experienced for periods that were long enough to entirely melt the poles. The planet hasn't seen hothouse conditions for more than 2.5 million years."

Hothouse Earth Ahead?
"...headlines were full of discussion of a possible return of a hothouse Earth courtesy of climate change."

Multiple Tipping Points
"...there are multiple tipping points in the climate, and we can't rule out shooting past them even if we get emissions under control within a few decades."

Hothouse Triggers
"...thawing of large areas of permafrost, which could release the carbon stored in them. Another option would be if warming destabilized the methane-water ices found in the ocean, which could allow the methane to reach the atmosphere."

Eco Crash News: Furthest Northern Arctic Permafrost to Melt

END OF COLD: Say Goodbye to Permafrost

"These are potential products of continued warming, and the carbon they'd dump into the atmosphere would in turn make further warming inevitable. In essence, the perspective is arguing that tipping points like these raise the prospect that relatively small changes could determine which future states our climate occupies—possibly something like a warmer present but potentially a far warmer hothouse."

Climate Crash News: Blowing Bubbles. Methane Bubbles

Water News, Shallow Lakes in a Warmer World: Methane Bubbling Machines

"...how seriously should we view this risk, and why are scientists suddenly talking about it now?"

How Big is the Carbon Gun We're Triggering? Very Large Indeed

The Old Cycle
"... the Earth has cycled between a heavily glaciated state and one in which the ice has been largely limited to the poles."

(Note: Now, even ice masses thought, "permenant," are melting and moving:
Ice News, Big, Cold, Old, Things are Stirring: The Totten Glacier, East Antarctica)

"But the differences were never large enough to drive the climate into a new state. When the orbital influences cycled back, the planet returned to a glacial state."

A New, Human Induced Cycle
"That's no longer the case. Even at current levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, it would take something exceptional to allow glacial conditions to return, and emissions are set to push those levels up ever higher over the next few decades."

"The authors posit that a possible route to a hothouse would involve a combination of multiple tipping points, situations where a small amount of warming pushes parts of the Earth system into a change that's effectively irreversible, at least on any time scale that might be relevant to us."

Tipping Point of No Return
"...we could already be on the path to a hothouse scenario, even if we were to limit our carbon emissions sufficiently to hold warming to about 2°C. If 2°C is enough to push us past a few tipping points, and those drive enough additional warming to push us past more, the climate could end up sliding downhill into a hothouse state even as we continued to cut emissions."

UPDATE, 1-2020: Tipping Points Falling Like Dominoes


Another, ANCIENT, Tipping-Point "Trigger" Event:

Amazing Ancient Human Climate Interactions Already Stymied ICE AGES

The natural interrelationship between all things, and our effective role within it, stretches far deeper into our past and future than we choose to understand.

Another, NEW, Tipping-Point "Trigger" Event:

2018: Permafrost Melt Lakes Surges Unaccounted-For Arctic Methane Release




2018 Climate Change News: North China Plain Rapidly Becoming Uninhabitable






Hothouse Weather of the Ancient Earth

Back to the Palogene

Lobotomizing the Web of Life: CO2 Increase a Time Machine to the Palogene Era

CO2 Increase a Time Machine Back to the Palogene Era


How do you like your frogs cooked? Self & Slow, or Naturally Quick?
(The Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event (T-OAE))


Lessons of the Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum

The Eco-Crash News, The Past Foretells the Future; Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum

OCEANS, CHEMISTRY, & CLIMATE: PETM Shows We're Cooking Up a Toxic Brew


What happened last time it was as warm as it’s going to get later this century?
Ars Technica, June, 2018, with links to recent, "Archaeological Climatology," research.



Heatwave Research

Heat Wave-a-topia, More Heat Waves Coming

Heatwave deaths will rise steadily by 2080 as globe warms up


The Fate of the Sierra & the Southwest

Climate Change News: Whole Southwest of US Undergoing Aridification


The Climate Models

Climate Models Underestimating Scale of Change: Twice What Climate Models Predict?


Four Degrees by 2084



Into the Past

140 to 20,000 Years into the Past





Death Rate to Rise as Well
Climate-Driven Anthropocene: Killing Ourselves and Everything Else with Heatwaves

Heatwave deaths will rise steadily by 2080 as globe warms up






August 2018 News of Man & Nature





News from Nature


Climate Destruction News



Bee News

Bear News

Spider Forum

Bird News

Small Mammals

Frogs and Reptiles

Butterfly News


Health and Fitness

Mountain Safety

Mosquito News

Female Trail

High Sierra History


Astro-Phys, Space, & Science News

High Sierra Geology News

Fish, Oceans, & Water News



All High Sierra News





long and short term climate change prospects worsening


Originally Published

2018-08-15 21:18:53

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