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Global Warming Changed North Hemisphere Rainfall Patterns, More Seasonal Precip as Rain

Global Warming Changed North Hemisphere Rainfall Patterns, More Seasonal Precip as Rain

Alex Wierbinski's picture

By Alex Wierbinski - Posted on 28 August 2019



Human-caused climate change on wintertime precipitation
in the Northern Hemisphere from 1921 to 2015

Human-caused climate change on wintertime precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere from 1921 to 2015, Simmi Sinha, UCAR, redrawn from map by Ruixia Guo of Lanzhou University and NCAR.
This map shows the influence of human-caused climate change on wintertime precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere from 1921 to 2015. The warming climate has spurred significant increases in precipitation across much of northeastern North America and northern Eurasia. The stippled regions show precipitation trends that are statistically insignificant. ©UCAR. Image: Simmi Sinha, UCAR, redrawn from map by Ruixia Guo of Lanzhou University and NCAR. Big Map.


Warming Changed Rainfall Patterns, More Seasonal Precip as Rain

Climate change has altered winter precipitation across the Northern Hemisphere,
NCAR-UCAR, August 26, 2019.


The Problem
"...the warming climate altered wintertime rainfall and snowfall across the Northern Hemisphere."

"Our research demonstrates that human-caused climate change has clearly affected precipitation over the past 100 years."

Changing Precip
Snow to Rain
"The results show that warming temperatures associated with societal emissions of greenhouse gases spurred a noticeable increase in wintertime precipitation across widespread regions of northern Eurasia and eastern North America since 1920."

The Study
"...an innovative approach that relied on observations of precipitation and large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns, along with statistical techniques and computer climate simulations. This enabled the research team to identify the amount of average monthly precipitation in specific regions of North American and Eurasia that fell as a result of human impacts on the climate, rather than natural variability."

Key Finding
Subtracting the influence of natural variability

"...the extent to which changes in weather patterns can be attributed to human influence on climate."

State of Understanding
"...researchers have repeatedly demonstrated that globally warming temperatures since the 1950s are largely due to societal emissions of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping greenhouse gases."

Fact, Not Fiction
"In the new study, the researchers used observations, rather than climate models, to determine the influence of a changing climate on precipitation."

"...study relied on detailed, international datasets of historic precipitation measurements and atmospheric circulation patterns."

N Hemisphere Winters
"...focused on winter because precipitation during that time of year is driven by broad atmospheric patterns that are easier to see in the data than localized conditions that affect summer precipitation, such as soil moisture and individual thunderstorms. They concentrated on the Northern Hemisphere because it contains far more measurements of precipitation than the Southern Hemisphere."

The Observations
1920 to 2015 Circulation Patterns
"...applying statistical techniques to observations of large-scale circulation patterns in the atmosphere for every winter month from 1920 to 2015. These circulation patterns, such as the location of high- and low-pressure systems over North America and Eurasia, occur independently of the build-up of heat-trapping greenhouse gases."

Observations vs Averages
"By aggregating all the circulation patterns, the researchers could estimate the typical amount of precipitation that would fall when a particular circulation pattern occurs. The team then compared the results to measurements of the precipitation that actually fell. The difference between the two — the amount of precipitation that would be associated with the large-scale circulation patterns under natural conditions and the actual precipitation trends — revealed the influence of climate change."

Observed Changes
Increased Wintertime Precip
"...the warming climate has led to increased wintertime precipitation across northeastern North America, as well as a small region of northwestern North America. Climate change also has contributed to an increase in precipitation across much of northwestern and north central Eurasia."

Observed Results Agrees with Models
"in good agreement with climate model simulations of human-induced changes in precipitation, providing an independent verification of the models."

“Scientists previously turned to climate models for answers. Here, the climate models come in only at the end to confirm what we teased out of observations independently."

Observation Detail Superior to Computer Model
"The findings lend support to international studies that have used powerful climate models to try to discern the influence of greenhouse gases. For example, the CMIP5 project showed a similar pattern of precipitation trends due to climate change. That research relied entirely on computer simulations, and its results were less detailed than the new study."

Variable Future Prospects
But, Bet on Extremes...
"Precipitation globally is projected to increase by an average of 1-2% per additional degree Celsius because a warmer atmosphere holds more water vapor. But local changes may be highly variable, with some regions becoming dryer and others far wetter."



The Bottom Line
Precip Only One Area of Radical Change

This study looks exclusively at precip, and does not take into account the changing times of seasonal transitions, the changing lengths of the seasons, nor the changes in the, "characters," of the seasons.

Emergent New World
All of these factors, when added up together with the parallel biological and ecosystem changes these weather and climate changes are driving, have already clearly shown us the outlines of the completely new climate and ecosystems that have already emerged and are manifesting themselves around the whole Northern Hemisphere, as the old climate and all the living things dependent upon it suffer, migrate, and/or die.

Final Breakdowns
We are right now watching the final breakdowns of our traditional Northern Hemisphere weather patterns, and even this position is just one step along our continuing path towards whatever our final, "new," climate destination will eventually be, when we finally stop adding more CO2 into our atmosphere, and the weather finally stops changing due to that added CO2.
Honestly, I cannot see us reaching that point voluntarily, of stopping CO2 growth, let alone reducing it, except through some type of economic, social, political, or military emergency/disaster that's capable of derailing the Corporate Growth Machine of Death that's eating what remains of our planet, after if finished consuming our souls. First things first, consumer idiots!

Second Fastest, Largest C02 Growth in 2019, Carbon Dioxide Levels Hit Record Peak in May

Feeling Loopy
Exactly where our climate and weather finally, "stabilizes," again, will finally determine exactly what kind and sophistication of ecosystems our planet's new weather will be able to support. Weather, climate, and ecology will all be unstable until climate stability is again achieved, and they can all settle down into a new routine. That point is likely hundreds, if not thousands of years in our future, depending on just how big the CO2 feedback loop our current emissions is triggering out of melting glaciers, sea ice, permafrost, glaciers, and the burning forests of the world.

Abrupt Permafrost Thaw Underway Right Now

Killing the Planet: End of Cold, Glaciers are Crashing

2018 Sea Surface Temperatures Hottest Ever

The Last Tipping Point
We may have already released enough CO2 to have already triggered a feedback of natural releases capable of finishing off our current climate and ecosystem, even if we humans stop releasing CO2 ourselves.

Our Increasing CO2 Production
As our current trajectory of atmospheric CO2 growth and warming are both continuing to increase in lockstep with our ever-increasing human growth and production, all these factors are continuing to drive continuing weather and climate changes, which appear to me to be accelerating.

Eden Lost
Climate equilibrium existed in our relatively near past, and will again in our far distant future. We have crushed the balances of nature in the present context.

Engines of Life
Because of our behaviors in, and the effects of our behaviors on our planet's, "natural balances," this stable system of seasons generating profuse and profound natural fertility is over.

We Broke It
Life's fertility is delicately balanced in the seasonal relationship between climate and weather, these seasonal temperature shifts driving what I call the, "Engines of Life," composed of these amazingly fertile balances between climate, geology, weather, and ecosystems that have generated fertility that have lasted for tens, if not hundreds of thousands of years on this planet, have been broken, are changing radically and rapidly.

Recent Research
Recovery Time
Humans are equal to The Big Volcano and The Big Rock from Space?

100,000 year, “Recovery?”

200,000 Year, "Recovery?"

Long Gone
Our traditional seasonal transitions and the character of climate and weather are changing into something completely different, and will not characterize our present for a very, very long time into our future, if ever. The old balance is broken, and is currently ripping itself into new patterns.

The Engines of Life on this planet are rapidly breaking down as human demands and destructive influences continue to grow, and continue to break down the fit and timing of life with climate and weather.


Blown Engines of Life
These, "Engines of Life," on our planet, the living things responding to seasonal changes, these, "life in the weather," relationships that have produced and provided so much fertility sustaining everything through vast stretches of time, and especially to humans recently, are in the process of being very badly damaged, if not outright broken by our unbalancing the chemistry of our atmosphere, which is rapidly resulting in much reduced fertility around the world.

Phrenological Breakdown
We've seen this breakdown in the, "Engines of Life," expressed through the breakdowns we've documented in, "the timing of life," consisting of the widespread breakdowns in the relationship between the timing of seasons with bird and insect migrations, blooming times, and hibernation schedules around the whole world.

Ancient patterns and relationships are rapidly breaking down.

Low Fertility Era Rising
Stop Hitting Yourself
We are watching our own actions driving Mother Nature from, "full fertility," now switching into, "survival mode," as its ecosystems break down under a changing climate driving what can only be called, warped, altered seasons.
The magnitude of these climate and weather changes, their rapidity, and their increasingly huge divergence from traditional weather patterns, everywhere in the Northern Hemisphere, indicates to me we are entering a period of, "low fertility," that's going to be real bad for the concentrated masses of, "consumers," stuffed into megacity population centers.

Long Road Ahead
The nature of these changes indicates to me that we are just entering the beginning stages of a low fertility era that has the potential to last as long as the tens of thousands of years that Nature had heretofore dominated the Earth during its, "high fertility," era, before we broke it.

Triggering changes in the fundamental composition of our atmosphere has implications and consequences for climate and weather that can easily last for tens of thousands of years.

Lotsa Bad Omens
This current era, characterized by the last ten thousand year period of extremely high fertility and productivity of Nature, is coming to a close, the Era of Man is in full swing, and Nature in full retreat.
This study above highlighting the drastic precip changes we've already triggered during our era of dominance is just one of many extremely dire warning signs our behavior has elicited from Nature.

Extreme Weather Rising
Climate Research, 2018: Extreme Heat Expanding with the End of Cold

Just Undo It
It would behoove us to pay heed to all of these warnings we've squeezed out of Nature, and to seriously begin undoing the irresponsible growth, development, and production that have brought our whole planet to this point of human and natural breakdowns, rather than continuing to push unlimited growth blindly forward as our fundamental ecological resources disappear, and the quality of everything under the Sun declines.

It's time to, "Just Undo It!"





News of Man & Nature, August 2019








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