Mid-November, 2018: Will it Be Wet, or Will it Continue to be Bone Dry?


Alex Wierbinski's picture

By Alex Wierbinski - Posted on 15 November 2018

WEATHER NOTE

A Tropical Brew Bubbling? Or Not?

Will it Be Wet, or Will it Continue to be Bone Dry?

Current Conditions
A couple of Big Storms are potentially moving into the, "West Coast Launch Zone," meaning into the position off the NE coast of Indonesia, from where common configurations of Highs and Lows in the North-East Pacific can deliver vast tropical flows generated by these storms to the West Coast of the US.

Unless
Unless the storms don’t get into their, “launch,” position, or, unless a big blocking ridge knocks these potential tropical flows to the North and South of California and the Sierra Nevada Mountains, around us, as happened during the biggest wettest, hottest, El Nino on record, that transpired through 2015. During the 2015 monster El Nino, which also happened to transpire during the driest single year in California’s living memory and its written history, during the deepest drought in five hundred years.

Water News: Epic Drought: California 2012-2017 Drought one for the Ages

Hummm. This configuration of human and natural forces bears close observation and tracking.

Tracking Resources

Big Sat Views

We're going to take a wide-angle satellite view of the North Pacific so we can observe the inception of potentially powerful tropical storms that can be transported, first, to our shores, and then our mountains.

Scroll down below the sat views linked to above to inspect the, "Hot Spots," which measures storm-top intensity signifying powerful storms happening around the world, but we’re especially concerned with the storms forming just above the NE coast of Indonesia, deep in the Tropics.

Next, check out the potential, "fuel," for our forming storms, composed of ocean heat as masured by the Sea Surface Temps and their Anomalies, which have great effect on storm formation, their intensity, and where they go.

Sea Surface Temperatures and Anomalies

We are checking our potential supplies of Fire (storm formation) and Fuel (SST) for storms generating vast masses of tropical moisture that could potentially flow towards the West Coast of the US. This has become increasingly important, especially since the weakening Winter storms coming Southeast across the Aleutians and Gulf Alaska have been increasingly displaced as the, "source," of Winter Storms feeding Sierra Snow Packs, by the expanding power of the tropics, and the warming and weakening of the Arctic, and especially of its Arctic Vortex.

This is a natural process accompanying the establishment of our, “New (ab)Normal” weather patterns, as our ancient, traditional Arctic-dominated Winter weather patterns distort themselves into a new tropically-dominated seasonal pattern with completely new seasonal inception points, with completely different storm tracks, and very different, "characters," as we watch our weather transforming on its way into wherever it’s ultimately turning into. This Winter, the experts are predicting a hot-water, El Nino Winter:

El Nino & La Nina
8 November 2018

Current
 Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Outlook Discussion
 

8 November 2018

"El Niño is expected to form and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19 (~80% chance) and into spring (55-60% chance)."

 

September, 2017
El Niño fears grow as starving baby birds wash up on California beaches

Neutral
At this time SST trends are looking fairly neutral, to me, with neither the cold water that's been persistently sitting off the West Coast of S America, nor the growing (?) mass of warm water in the Central Pacific looking terribly impressive. What is looking impressive is the power and size of, "The Blob," sitting up high in the Gulf Alaska.

El Nino - La Nina: What they are, how they work, what they do

Feeling Blobbish
At this point in time the anomalous hot water in Gulf Alaska is profound in heat, its local size, its broader scale, and its long duration. Not just is Gulf Alaska heavily overheated, but the warming wraps around Alaska, and appears to be filling the whole Bearing Sea with very warm water.

This warming is a function of a persistent Low Pressure Zone up in Gulf Alaska dragging lots of warm tropical moisture to the NE, around the West edge of the persistent High that's set-up off the coast of California, which created a persistent storm track that's warmed-up these otherwise chilly waters with all the tropical moisture that persistent Low has sucked up to the Northeast out of the tropics.

The bottom-line is that the Arctic Circle is not, "spinning down," into a vortex of violently spinning frigid cold air, which is allowing this Low in Gulf Alaska to persist in a static position. The passivity of the Arctic Vortex could also be contributing to the persistence of the ridge off the coast of California, as well.

Our New Ab-Normal
New High-Low Formations...
Does our, "New Normal," now include an, "El Nino Norte," Also Known As, "The Blob?' Does it also include regular appearances by, “The Ridiculously Resilient Ridge,” which will knock all Pacific storms, regardless of if they come out of the SW or NW, around most of California, and the Sierra Nevada too, if not disrupt the weather along whole N American West Coast?

The old, ancient & traditional pattern and range of the annual, seasonal changing cycle of Highs and Lows over the Northeast Pacific and West Coast of the US is mostly gone. It has already shifted the timing of its seasonal changes and locations, and is still in the process of shifting the timing and tracks of our fundamental seasonal High-Low pressure pattern, and the storms that follow them. Don't get used to the current weather pattern, because change will be our only constant.

It looks to me like the shape of the atmosphere itself has changed, and how the shape of our atmosphere changes over the course of a season has also changed, both of which changes are spawning new seasons for all.

Planetary Shape Shifter
I've believed a lot of the changes in our season patterns and progressions we are seeing are products of the changing shape of the Equatorial Bulge, along with changes in how it tapers-off running North over the Temperate zone up to the Arctic, for a long time. I believe these changes include having pushed its central bulge zone wider, changing and lessening its Northerward thinning, effectively making the atmosphere above the Sierra, and the whole Northeastern Pacific and West Coast of the US, "deeper," which has changed the positions of, and is retarding the seasonal movements of Hadly Cells, which is affecting everything.

The Question
Nonetheless, we come back to the vital question. Will it be wet, or continue to be Bone Dry? We’ll observe the answers to these questions about storm formation and sea surface temperatures we ask above, as their behavior and interplay are going to ultimately answer that question, as well as providing us with a perfect stage displaying and distributing the, “forces of imbalance,” that are tormenting both man and nature on Planet Earth today, as the grand interplay between the forces of Man & Nature in the atmosphere of this planet continues to play out, until Nature dances alone, by the looks of it, if I am properly reading the omens that we have drained into the waters, spewed into the sky, and have deeply carved onto the various faces this fine Earth has shown us...

The Answer
We're going to ride the climate, "tiger," we ourselves have created and released upon ourselves. Well, at least we had better try to jump on its back and ride it, 'cause facing a mad cat is never good.

 

 

Future Forecast,
As of the 13th of November:

Rain Predicted for Next Tuesday, Nov 20th.

 

 

Tracking the New Character & Behavior of our Emergent New Normal

October 2018: The Blob is Back?

British Colombia Heat Wave Continuing: The Blob Hides in the Deep


2018 NOAA WEST COAST FISHERIES REPORT, & History of the Blob

 

 

RRR
The Ridiculously Resilient Ridge

Freak Weather News: The Ridiculously Resilient Ridge, What It Is, Changes it’s Undergoing, Where it's Going

 

 

Polar Vortex Weakened

What Happens when You Grow Too Big for your Britches? The Arctic Vortex Weakens!

Polar Vortex Splits Under Warming Stratosphere

Polar Vortex Effect Further Quantified, Causes & Effects

 

Warm Arctic Chills Dixie? Warming Arctic Channels Frigid Air South

 

Traditional Arctic Weather Cycle Gone

 

 

Tropics Expanding

Tropical Planet: Tropics are widening as predicted by climate models

 

 

Nature's Giving Tiger Riding Lessons

Super Hot Summer of 2017: A Year of Weather Extremes

CLIMATE CRASHING: EXTREME WEATHER, The Fun's Just Getting Started

Cal to Ride the Tiger: Climate Change Weather Extremes to Lash California

 

 

 

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 dry fall weather 2018 the blob ridiculously resilient ridge

  

Originally Published
2018-11-14 16:11:22

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