El Nino Growing and Changing with Rising Temperatures is Only the Tip of the Problem


Alex Wierbinski's picture

By Alex Wierbinski - Posted on 23 October 2019

 

OCEANS, WARMING, RADICALLY CHANGING WEATHER, & EL NINO BEHAVIORS

Comparing the Massive 1997 & 2015 El Ninos
Comparing the Massive 1997 & 2015 El Ninos, Credit to NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory.
This visualization shows side by side comparisons of Pacific Ocean sea surface height (SSH) anomalies of what is presently happening in 2015 with the Pacific Ocean signal during the famous 1997 El Niño. These 1997 and 2015 El Niño animations were made from data collected by the TOPEX/Poseidon (1997) and the OSTM/Jason-2 (2015) satellites. More. Credit to NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

 

El Nino Growing and Changing with Rising Temperatures is Only the Tip of the Problem

Climate Warming Promises more Frequent Extreme El Niño Events,
University of Hawaii at Manoa, October 21, 2019.

MAIN POINTS

El Nino Changing With Climate
"...since the late 1970's, climate change effects have shifted the El Niño onset location from the eastern Pacific to the western Pacific and caused more frequent extreme El Niño events. Continued warming over the western Pacific warm pool promises conditions that will trigger more extreme events in the future."

Study Scope
"...examined details of 33 El Niño events from 1901 to 2017, evaluating for each event the onset location of the warming, its evolution, and its ultimate strength."

"...able to identify four types of El Niño, each with distinct onset and strengthening patterns."

Shifting Warm Waters
"...they found a decided shift in behavior since the late 1970's: all events beginning in the eastern Pacific occurred prior to that time, while all events originating in the western-central Pacific happened since then." They also found that four of five identified extreme El Niño events formed after 1970. "

Future Consequences
"Simulations with global climate models suggest that if the observed background changes continue under future anthropogenic forcing, more frequent extreme El Niño events will induce profound socioeconomic consequences."

 

Backpacker's Weather Page
El Nino Information

 

Previous El Nino

Jan 2018
Global Warming News, Recent 2015 Huge El Nino: Shifted Global Temps into New Gear

 

Feeling Blobish...

Oct 2019
Massive 2019 Blob Forms

 

Warming Seas

Jan 2019
Warming Seas to Radically Increase Frequency of Extreme Storms by 2100

 

 

Major Ocean Crisis
Ocean Canary in the Coal Mine
Oct 2019
The West Coast Ocean Warming Kelp, Urchin, Abalone, Starfish Disaster Continues

 

The Bottom Line

Ocean and air circulation patterns are changing in our neck of the woods, up here in the Northeastern Pacific, where the weather crossing the High Sierra is brewed up.

A number of biological changes have been transpiring alongside the long, slow increases in air and ocean temperatures, likely driven by these same temp changes.
In a nutshell, the power of the tropics as the driving influence of High Sierra Weather has been increasing, while the power of the Arctic in determining the character of our Winter weather has been diminishing. This is due to the rapidly decreasing differential between cold Arctic and warm tropical airs and seas, causing the disruptions in the seasonal weather patterns we have been experiencing.

I put most of the responsibility for these drastic changes at the doorstep of the much warmer Arctic. The warmer and rapidly warming Arctic has seriously diminished the influence of the annual Arctic chill-down, along with what I call the, "spindown," of the Arctic Vortex every year. The Arctic is not chilling nor spinning down during early Fall, it's not as cold nor compact during mid-Winter, and now often breaks up or slides off the top of the world long before the advent of Spring warming. The differential in speed and temperature between the Vortex and tropical moisture moving into the North Pacific during Winter is no longer sufficiently different to maintain their traditional relationships and transport patterns over the whole North Pacific.

Things have changed. Fundamental things.

The loss of this brutally cold centrifugal force spinning around the North Pole during mid-winter has altered many aspects of the air, heat, and moisture flows across the whole North Pacific, especially from early Fall to the end of Spring. These changes are only going to deepen as the warming continues, and continues to accelerate in the Arctic and the Oceans.

The main role of the Arctic Vortex was to draw tropical moisture deflected off the Equator by the Asian Land Mass up into the North Central Pacific under the Bering Straight, cool it down with its Arctic Vortex Wintertime brutality, while the power of the spinning Vortex itself sped up this now-supercharged ex-tropical air up, as it deflected this now transformed tropical air mass coming up out of the Southeast down to the Southwest across the Gulf Alaska, to hit the Northwestern US and the High Sierra as the cold, wet storms out of the Northwest that have traditionally filled the Sierra with snow for centuries.

The weaker Vortex no longer reliably draws tropical moisture further up, then off the Asian Coast into the North Pacific under the Aleutians during Winter. Much of this moisture now travels directly West across the Central North Pac to the US. Thus it appears that not only is this altered, weakened vortex affecting weather here, at the end point of these altered storm tracks on the West Coast of the U.S., but is also affecting the tracks of these Winter storms as they're moving North and Northeast across the NE coast of Asia, as well.

In addition to this long, gradual transition of Winter storms targeting the High Sierra from coming out of the NW, to coming out of the West and Southwest, the increasing heat of Equatorial & tropical airs and waters has had the effect of supercharging the storm tracks coming out of the Southwest towards the Sierra from the tropics. These Southern storm tracks have become much more active as the Arctic Vortex has weakened and warmed-up while the tropics have simultaneously warmed-up.

We are seeing a, "changing of the guard," of the dominant force controlling Sierra Winter weather transitioning from the North to the South, from cold storms out of the Aleutians to warm storms out of the tropics.

I always figured experiencing tropical Winters out of the West/Southwest in the High Sierra as being a regular event that could be expected one out of every seven seasons. Storms out of the West and Southwest are now looking to be the dominant direction out of which Winter storms now come, while Winters featuring weather out of the Northwest are quickly becoming the one in seven. We can see some powerful climate and weather trend lines in operation through this transition.

Overall, we've seen a gradual shift in the source of the vast majority of our Winter weather affecting the High Sierra from coming out of the Northwest, to one where the vast majority of our Winter weather now comes out of the West or Southwest. These are much warmer storms carrying warmer water making more rain than snow.

These changes in Northeastern Pacific wind and storm tracks have also changed the circulation of ocean heat in the Northeastern Pacific, resulting in, "The Blob." The Blob and Ridge are both manifestations of what happens when big weather patterns change, while sending a very threatening warning about what will happen if we continue to push the policies that have set up whole new patterns of Northeaster Pacific air and water circulation flows.

"The Blob and The Ridge," could well be regular features of our new warmer, wetter, "droughtier," weather patterns coming out of the West and Southwest, and a complete disaster for Northeastern Pacific Fisheries, marine life generally, and the billions who depend on healthy ecosystems and regular weather for their very lives.

These are the new patterns that are right now emerging out from between the rapidly weakening Arctic Vortex to our North, and the rapidly warming Equatorial waters to our South, and neither of those warming trends is stopping or slowing down.

Our traditional weather patterns have been based on the regular seasonal flows of heat-carrying moisture from the Tropics to the Arctic. The regularity of our seasons has been based on our weather patterns repeatedly balancing our planet's seasonally shifting North-South temperature differential over great spans of time.
That differential is now very different from its traditional range. The traditional differential, from a hot tropics to a cold Arctic, has now transformed into the much less significant difference between a super hot tropics and a warm Arctic. Everything is changing between our changing climate, "bookends," of the warming Arctic to our North and the boiling tropics to our South.

This new, much warmer range of temperatures from tropic to arctic, coupled with the much warmer range of the temperature differential between Tropic and Arctic, is breaking up the final bits of our traditional seasonal climate and weather patterns, revealing the first outlines of the new patterns which will fully, and catastrophically, manifest themselves as this century unfolds.

 

Earlier

El Nino El Norte

 

Damaged Arctic Vortex Not Spinning Down,
Contributing to (along with supercharged tropical airs & waters) a, "new thing," being the annual appearance of the, "El Nino El Norte?"

 

 

 

Fish-Ice-Oceans-Water

News of Man & Nature, October 2019

 

 

 

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