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Climate Models Underestimating Scale of Change: Twice What Climate Models Predict? | High Sierra Backpacker

Climate Models Underestimating Scale of Change: Twice What Climate Models Predict?

Alex Wierbinski's picture

By Alex Wierbinski - Posted on 05 July 2018



Climate Models Underestimating Scale of Change

Global warming may be twice what climate models predict,
University of New South Wales, July 4, 2018.

Anyone reading this site for any length of time already knows that the "standard" climate models are at least suppressing expected heat increases by half, while not accurately accounting for current observed atmospheric and oceanic changes.
The more "pessimistic" climate models are proving to be the "best-fits" for the real behavior of the atmosphere and oceans we are observing and experiencing. Check the links to previous analysis of climate models below.


This Research

"Future global warming may eventually be twice as warm as projected by climate models under business-as-usual scenarios and even if the world meets the 2°C target sea levels may rise six metres or more..."

“Observations of past warming periods suggest that a number of amplifying mechanisms, which are poorly represented in climate models, increase long-term warming beyond climate model projections."


Distant Mirrors of the Past

"...researchers looked at three of the best-documented warm periods, the Holocene thermal maximum (5000-9000 years ago), the last interglacial (129,000-116,000 years ago) and the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.3-3 million years ago)."

"In combination, these periods give strong evidence of how a warmer Earth would appear once the climate had stabilized. By contrast, today our planet is warming much faster than any of these periods as human caused carbon dioxide emissions continue to grow. Even if our emissions stopped today, it would take centuries to millennia to reach equilibrium."


Back to the Future...

"The changes to the Earth under these past conditions were profound – there were substantial retreats of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets and as a consequence sea-levels rose by at least six metres; marine plankton ranges shifted reorganising entire marine ecosystems; the Sahara became greener and forest species shifted 200 km towards the poles, as did tundra; high altitude species declined, temperate tropical forests were reduced and in Mediterranean areas fire-maintained vegetation dominated."


Far Past the Tipping Point...

“Even with just 2°C of warming – and potentially just 1.5°C – significant impacts on the Earth system are profound."


And, We're Just Getting Started

“We can expect that sea-level rise could become unstoppable for millennia, impacting much of the world’s population, infrastructure and economic activity.”


Recent research (the Chicxulub paper) suggest that it'll take 100,000 years for atmospheric and oceanic conditions to "normalize" from the effects of the CO2 douching we humans are giving our planet...


Climate Model Research

Scope & Depth of Warming Explored

Looks at Temp Models in the Past & Future


Climate Model Research

Worse models the Best?

Two Degrees Already Baked In

Improved Models Show Grim Future

Four Degrees by 2084


What "Fits"

Only massive volcanic activity and strikes by huge meteors provide comparitive scenarios to our sparking the, "Anthropocene."

End of The Age of Humans: Human Effects Equal Chicxulub Climate Disruption

Humans are Equal to The Big Volcano(s) and The Big Rock from Space?


New Scales of Destruction

Bringing together increasingly accurate analysis of what is happening to our atmosphere and oceans (and therefore everything else) has required an "adjustment" to the scale of potential consequences of our behavior:

Climate: "Existential Threat" by 2050

New climate risk classification: "Beyond Catastrophic"


Stop being Greedy, Lawless Jackasses

This ecological crisis requires that drastic and dramatic actions be taken to curb the massive destruction that the irresponsible demographic growth of our "American" population has spawned over the past forty years of "domestic" corporate criminality, of their unchecked pursuit of greed.

Our corporate "leaders" doubled our population and halved the wealth of the American Middle Class, and average folk across our whole country, pocketing it all, while stripping the last bits of our water, land, and ecosystems naked. We, and our environment have been, "asset-stripped" through this program of, "growth and development."

These "domestic" corporate crimes are mirrored and multiplied internationally, in their Empire of Greed. Our corporate masters have replaced the domestic manufacturing that once supported the whole American Middle Class, replaced by the Foreign Slaves of the Chicoms, working under virtually no ecological regulation, let alone, "political freedom."

The only "rights" our corporate leaders recognize are the "rights" of the greedy to make money above the rule of any "law," be it the Chicom's "constitution," or ours.

That's how our corporate elite stole all the wealth and power of the Middle Class in America in the first place, in lockstep with their foreign "partners." Our wonderful leaders then used this concentration of ill-gotten wealth and power to finance the last bits of global, "growth," and "development," necessary to finally disrupt the world's ancient & traditional relationships between weather and ecosystems, and between Man & Nature.

That's what's gotta be stopped...before it proceeds any longer in our "present" reality, as our actions up to now have already ensured the next hundred thousand years (again, the Chicxulub paper) are going to be very interesting times indeed, for our descendents. The greedy must be restrained, and pushed back within the limits of our own sovereign laws.

We require a New Environmentalism to stop the Corporate Growth Machine of Death... it's for the "children." We know who and what behaviors (our corporate elite, supercharged by their unchecked greed and corruption) are doing this. Now, we've just got to find the proper tools with which to stop them...

The Proper Tools
The Bill of Rights and our Constitution were designed to dispell these "types of power," the powers of corruption that greed concentrates. Too bad neither of the parties running our government use, or follow them anymore.... maybe the answer is right in front of us...and even within some of us.

I understand and operate within the restraints of our mutual agreement and obligations as an American. Do you? Does any of our political "leadership?"

Let's hang them with our own petard...

A vast proportion of "our" population knows nothing about the exceptional mutual restraints and protections in our Constitution, knowing only the greed of those who first broke it, and continue to break it today...


May Day, Mayday,...



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