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Mid-November, 2018: Will it Be Wet, or Will it Continue to be Bone Dry? sticky icon

WEATHER NOTE

A Tropical Brew Bubbling? Or Not?

Will it Be Wet, or Will it Continue to be Bone Dry?

Current Conditions
A couple of Big Storms are potentially moving into the, "West Coast Launch Zone," meaning into the position off the NE coast of Indonesia, from where common configurations of Highs and Lows in the North-East Pacific can deliver vast tropical flows generated by these storms to the West Coast of the US.

Unless
Unless the storms don’t get into their, “launch,” position, or, unless a big blocking ridge knocks these potential tropical flows to the North and South of California and the Sierra Nevada Mountains, around us, as happened during the biggest wettest, hottest, El Nino on record, that transpired through 2015. During the 2015 monster El Nino, which also happened to transpire during the driest single year in California’s living memory and its written history, during the deepest drought in five hundred years.

Water News: Epic Drought: California 2012-2017 Drought one for the Ages

Hummm. This configuration of human and natural forces bears close observation and tracking.

Tracking Resources

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Hidden Trends in our Changing Global Climate Revealed sticky icon

CLIMATE CHANGES DRAMATICALLY UNDERESTIMATED

Statistical Reanalysis Reveals-Explains Anomalous Weather Trends

Overlooked trends in annual precipitation reveal underestimated risks worldwide,
University of Maine, November 13, 2018.

MAIN POINTS

Overlooked Weather Trends
“A reanalysis of worldwide annual trends in precipitation demonstrates that risk to human and environmental systems has been underestimated… they found more than 38 percent of the global population and over 44 percent of land area have been experiencing overlooked precipitation trends.”

Standard Analysis
Performed using, “...the probability distribution function (PDF), where the frequency with which precipitation amounts within a certain interval occur and the probability of exceedance (non-exceedance) above (below) a given threshold can be readily estimated.”

New Analysis using Quantile Regression
“...an innovative trend typology using quantile regression and offer a comprehensive analysis of overlooked trends worldwide.”

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Eco Crash News, 2018: Observing Our Rapidly Shifting Seasons and Ecosystems sticky icon

 

 

 CHANGING WEATHER, 

&
CHANING WORLD,
NEWS

2018

Updated Daily 

November 13,  2018

 

The transitions between seasons, their basic character, their timing, temp, and humidity transitions have all changed. The directions from which the seasonal winds blow have changed. These changes are reverberating through and disrupting webs of life that wrap around the whole planet.

Blooming, feeding, mating, and migration patterns of all living things are changing around the world.

Here we track the obvious and the subtle human affects on Nature. The club and the knife, if you will.

 

LAST MONTHS' CLIMATE NEWS: October through December 2017

 

 

 Updated

November 13

CLIMATE CHANGES DRAMATICALLY UNDERESTIMATED

Statistical Reanalysis Reveals-Explains Anomalous Weather Trends

Overlooked Precipitation Trends Reveal underestimated Global Risks

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2018: Free Press Failure puts 5 Major Crops In Crosshairs Of Climate

CRASHING POLITICS & PRESS HONESTY CRASHES CLIMATE & ECONOMY

NPR-PBS Lead the Overpopulation-Offshoring Charge
that broke our Environment, while Dissassociating itself from Consequences-Responsibility

5 Major Crops In The Crosshairs Of Climate Change,
NPR, October 25, 2018.

MAIN POINTS

"Climate change is coming like a freight train, or a rising tide."

"Here are five foods, and food-growing places, that will see the impact."

"Wheat"
"...the country where the impact may be greatest also is among least well-equipped to cope with a shortfall. India is likely to see a large drop in wheat production due to heat stress — about 8 percent if average global temperatures rise by 1 degree Celsius..."

"...wheat may not be in short supply in a warmer world. Russia, which is already a major wheat exporter, may be able to expand the amount of land devoted to this crop."

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Wildlife Conservation Society: 77% of Wilderness Gone

ECO-CRASHING NEWS

Vast Majority of Wilderness GONE

A wilderness 'horror story,'
Wildlife Conservation Society, October 31, 2018.

MAIN POINTS

 

77% of Wilderness Gone
“...conservation scientists...say that just 23 percent of the world's landmass can now be considered wilderness, with the rest - excluding Antarctica - lost to the direct effects of human activities.”

End of Wilderness
“These results are nothing short of a horror story for the planet's last wild places. The loss of wilderness must be treated in the same way we treat extinction. There is no reversing once the first cut enters. The decision is forever."

Last Land & Sea Refuges
“Various analyses reveal that wilderness areas provide increasingly important refuges for species that are declining in landscapes dominated by people. In the seas, they are the last regions that still contain viable populations of top predators, such as tuna, marlins and sharks.”

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Hawking: Soaring populations and increased energy demands will cause catastrophe

 REPRINT:
Blast from the Past

 

Eco Crash News
No One Does it Like The Taboloids

I love the Daily Mail & Brit Tabs

Hawking: Soaring populations and increased energy demands will cause catastrophe
Hawking on the Simpsons, credit to Matt Groening.
Hawking on the Simpsons, credit to Matt Groening.

Earth 'will become a flaming ball of fire by 2600': Professor Stephen Hawking warns that mankind must make plans to leave the planet to avoid extinction,
Daily Mail, November 6, 2017.

USA Today "Coverage"

Here's what I think really happened: Hawking, being the brilliant mathematician he is, "crunched the global CO2 numbers," and came up with a rough estimate of, "six hundred years," before our Carbon Dioxide feeds-back like Venus, we get a catastrophic greenhouse effect, and we cook.

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Expect More Extreme Weather

CLIMATE CHANGING NEWS

Extreme Weather

OU meteorologist expects severe drought and heavy rain events to worsen globally,
University of Oklahoma, October 25, 2018.

MAIN POINTS

Warning
“A University of Oklahoma meteorologist...expects severe drought and long-lasting rainfall events to worsen in the future.”

Changes
"The Caribbean and Central America will have more extreme droughts and the north and northeast of North America can expect more extreme heavy rain events. Around the world, some places will see droughts and heavy rain events become more intense, longer lasting and more frequent. For the agriculture and related industries, this is particularly important."

Drought and Flood…
“Even regions that are projected to become drier overall, like the Southwest and South Central United States, are expected to see more severe, longer and frequent periods of heavy rain. Martin refers to the May 2015 rain event in Oklahoma and Texas as one example of what could be expected in the future.”


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Devils Hole in Amagosa Desert Points to Dry Future

CLIMATE CHANGE NEWS

Devils Hole in Amagosa Desert Points to Dry Future
Into the Devils Hole
Into the Devils Hole, Amagosa Desert. Photo Credit Robbie Shone.
Photo Credit Robbie Shone, University of Innsbruck.

Climate change: US desert areas to become even drier,
University of Innsbruck, October 24, 2018.

MAIN POINTS

"The Devils Hole cave system, named after its bottomless depths, provides a window into the vast desert aquifer below. The cave system is home to a peculiar type of calcite deposit. As groundwater slowly passes through the cave, calcite precipitates layer by layer on the rock walls. "These thin layers have been accumulating on the walls for nearly one million years."

"The height of ancient deposits in Devils Hole cave tell us how high the water table was in the past."

"...the Innsbruck team used special drilling equipment to collect calcite deposits from several points above and below the current water table. The ages of the deposits were then determined using the thorium-uranium method."

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End of Sleeping Sickness? Zambezi Too Hot for Tsetse Flies?

HEALTH, FITNESS, & CLIMATE

End of Sleeping Sickness?
Ever Seen a Tsetse Fly?
Bloodsucking insects that cause sleeping sickness in humans. Photo by Judy Gallagher.
Now you have! Photo Credit to Judy Gallagher

"Photo Caption: Tsetse flies are bloodsucking insects that carry the trypanosome parasite which causes sleeping sickness in humans. They occur exclusively in sub-Sahara Africa."

Zambezi Valley may soon be too hot for tsetse flies,
Stellenbosch University, October 23, 2018.

MAIN POINTS

"A new study, based on 27 years of data from Mana Pools National Park in Zimbabwe, suggests that temperature increases over the last three decades have already caused major declines in local populations of tsetse flies."

Precipitous Decline
"Since the 1990s, catches of tsetse flies from cattle in the park declined from more than 50 flies per animal per catching session in 1990, to less than 1 fly per 10 catching sessions in 2017. Since 1975, mean daily temperatures have risen by nearly 1° C and by around 2° C in the hottest month of November."

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Arctic Greening Thaws Permafrost, Boosts Runoff

CLIMATE CHANGING RAPIDLY

More Permafrost Problems

Arctic greening thaws permafrost, boosts runoff,
DOE/Los Alamos National Laboratory, October 17, 2018.

MAIN POINTS

"...investigated Arctic shrub-snow interactions to obtain a better understanding of the far north's tundra and vast permafrost system."

Taliks
"...investigated interactions among shrubs, permafrost, and subsurface areas called taliks. Taliks are unfrozen ground near permafrost caused by a thermal or hydrological anomaly. Some tunnel-like taliks called "through taliks" extend over thick permafrost layers."

Massive Changes to Ancient Ecosystems
"...confirmed that shrubs can lead to significant degradation of the permafrost layer that has remained frozen for tens of thousands of years. These interactions are driving increases in discharges of fresh water into rivers, lakes and oceans."

Conclusion
"If the trend of increasing vegetation across the Arctic continues, we're likely to see a strong increase in permafrost degradation."

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BEER-O-POCOLYPSE? Barley Biting the Global Warming Dust?

HEALTH, FITNESS, BEER, & OUR CHANGING CLIMATE

BEER-O-POCOLYPSE?

Barley Biting the Global Warming Dust

 

Global warming will have us crying in what's left of our beer,
University of California - Irvine, October 15, 2018.

MAIN POINTS

“On top of rising sea levels, stronger hurricanes and worsening wildfires, scientists project that human-caused climate change will result in one of the most dire consequences imaginable: a disruption in the global beer supply.”

“...concurrent droughts and heat waves, exacerbated by anthropogenic global warming, will lead to sharp declines in crop yields of barley, beer's main ingredient.”

"Our study showed that even modest warming will lead to increases in drought and excessive heat events in barley-growing areas."

(Results from the new (associated study) study reveal potential average yield losses ranging from 3% to 17%, depending on the severity of the conditions.)

No Beer for You
"Our results show that in the most severe climate events, the supply of beer could decline by about 16 percent in years when droughts and heat waves strike," he said. "That's comparable to all beer consumption in the U.S. Future climate and pricing conditions could put beer out of reach for hundreds of millions of people around the world."

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The 2018 UN, “DUH,” Report

CLIMATE CHANGING OUR AMAZING PLANET

The “DUH,” Report

'Incredibly grim' prognosis on global warming also carries clarion call for global action,
LA-LA Land Times, October 8, 2018.

MAIN POINTS

“A major new report on global warming makes a chilling prediction: Without swift and sweeping worldwide intervention, some devastating effects of climate change will hit harder — and decades sooner — than previously expected.”

The report, released Monday by a U.N. organization... served as a stark reminder of President Trump’s status as a global outlier...”

(Really? Trump says Seven Degrees by 2100, which is the most realistic estimate I’ve yet heard from any government on the face of this planet...

“Trump has rejected the 2015 Paris agreement signed by 195 nations to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions...”

Paris is a Fraud: IT EXEMPTS CHINA & INDIA!!

Hansen Calls Paris "A Fraud"

This is Hilarious!

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The End of Cold: McMurdo Dry Valleys Unique Environment Threatened

CLIMATE CHANGING OUR AMAZING PLANET

The End of Cold
McMurdo Dry Valleys Unique Environment Threatened-Changing

 

View of McMurdo
In the McMurdo Dry Valley environment, by J Levy from Portland State.
Credit for Image by Joseph Levy of Portland State University.

Rapid, widespread changes may be coming to Antarctica's Dry Valleys, study finds,
Portland State University, October 9, 2018.

UNIQUE

First, an introduction to a unique environment

McMurdo Dry Valleys
One of the most extreme places on Earth

Wiki

"Dry Valleys are so named because of their extremely low humidity and their lack of snow or ice cover...one of the world's most extreme deserts...the largest ice-free region in Antarctica...unique conditions in the Dry Valleys are caused, in part, by katabatic winds; these occur when cold, dense air is pulled downhill by the force of gravity. The winds can reach speeds of 320 kilometres per hour (200 mph), heating as they descend, and evaporating all water, ice and snow."

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CLIMATE CRASHING: EXTREME WEATHER, The Fun's Just Getting Started

CLIMATE CRASHING EXTREME WEATHER

The Fun is Just Getting Started...

More wet and dry weather extremes projected with global warming,
Rutgers University, October 4,2018.

MAIN POINTS

Wetter & Drier
“Global warming is projected to spawn more extreme wet and dry weather around the world...”

Where
“...more frequent dry spells in the northwestern, central and southern United States and in Mexico, and more frequent heavy rainfall events in south Asia, the Indochinese Peninsula and southern China.“

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ECO-CRASHING NEWS: ARCTIC ICE SUMMER MINIMUM

ECO-CRASHING NEWS: ARCTIC

6th Lowest Summer Minimum

Arctic Sea Ice Reaches 2018 Minimum,
NASA Earth Observer, September 28, 2018.

2018 Arctic Summer Minimum, NASA.
Image Credit to NASA. "Arctic sea ice as measured by satellites on September 19, 2018. Extent is defined as the total area in which the ice concentration is at least 15 percent. The yellow outline shows the median September sea ice extent from 1981–2010."

MAIN POINTS

"Arctic sea ice likely reached its annual minimum extent on September 19 and again on September 23, 2018, according to researchers at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) and NASA. Analyses of satellite data showed that the Arctic ice cap shrank to 4.59 million square kilometers (1.77 million square miles), tied for the sixth lowest summertime minimum on record. Researchers at NSIDC noted that the estimate is preliminary, and it is still possible (but not likely) that changing winds could push the ice extent lower."

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ECO-CRASH NEWS: The Oceans, Surf’s Up, and Rising to Record Levels

ECO-CRASH NEWS

Surf's Up, and Rising!

Global sea level could rise 50 feet by 2300, study says,
Rutgers University, October 8, 2018.

MAIN POINTS

UNLUCKY?
"...sea-level could rise by nearly 8 feet by 2100 and 50 feet by 2300 if greenhouse gas emissions remain high and humanity proves unlucky..."

"... Under moderate emissions, central estimates of global average sea-level from different analyses range from 1.4 to 2.8 more feet by 2100, 2.8 to 5.4 more feet by 2150 and 6 to 14 feet by 2300..."

"...with 11 percent of the world's 7.6 billion people living in areas less than 33 feet above sea level, rising seas pose a major risk to coastal populations, economies, infrastructure and ecosystems around the world..."

 

 

Sea Level Research

Climate Change News: Higher Faster, Sea level rise accelerating

 

ANTHROPOCENE: Ecosystem Loss at Rising Sea level, Say Bye to the California Coastline

 

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ECO-CRASH NEWS: One Politician Finally Admits 7 Degrees by 2100

ECO-CRASH NEWS

One Politician Finally Admits 7 Degrees by 2100

Trump administration sees a 7-degree rise in global temperatures by 2100,
USA News, September 28, 2018.

MAIN POINTS

The US Gov's NEW Position:
“Last month, deep in a 500-page environmental impact statement, the Trump administration made a startling assumption: On its current course, the planet will warm a disastrous 7 degrees by the end of this century.”

“…issued by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA)...”

As I’ve Said Before:
The current trajectory of the corporate growth machine of death, of endless population growth and offshoring of manufacturing has already brought us to the point of a catastrophic change in our seasonal weather patterns.

The Trump Admin is the first to admit what the Dim and Repugnant parties have not, that their shared policies of endless growth and, “globalism,” have already doomed our planet, and all the cultures on it, to catastrophic change.

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Taller Plants, Now Our New Climate is Thickening their Leaves

CLIMATE CHANGING PLANTS

Taller, Now Our New Climate’s Thickening their Leaves

High CO2 levels cause plants to thicken their leaves, could worsen climate change effects,
University of Washington, October 1, 2018.

MAIN POINTS

Physical Effect
“...scientists have observed that when levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere rise, most plants do something unusual: They thicken their leaves.”

Systematic Effect
“...would be less efficient in sequestering atmospheric carbon, a fact that climate change models to date have not taken into account.”

When
“...under the high atmospheric carbon dioxide levels expected later this century...”

Effect
Thick-Leaf Loss of Plant CO2 Squester
“...leaving about 5.8 extra petagrams, or 6.39 billion tons, of carbon in the atmosphere per year.”

Scale of Squester Loss
“Those levels are similar to the amount of carbon released into the atmosphere each year due to human-generated fossil fuel emissions — 8 petagrams, or 8.8 billion tons.”

Last
Arctic Plants are Getting Rapidly Taller

 

Alex Wierbinski's picture

ECO-CRASHING NEWS, 2018: Scope, Depth, & Future of Global Warming Explored

FYI
The Original Article, from June 2018 is REPOSTED below,
now with an article added that was posted on Oct 1, 2018:
"Crashing through Long-Term Tipping Points."
 

 

Original Article
ECO-CRASHING NEWS

Scope, Depth, & Future of Global Warming Explored

What happened last time it was as warm as it’s going to get later this century?
Ars Technica, June 18, 2018.

MAIN POINTS

"Like the Middle Miocene"

"The year 2100 stands like a line of checkered flags at the climate change finish line, as if all our goals expire then."

"...the climate won’t stop changing in 2100. Even if we succeed in limiting warming this century to 2ºC, we’ll have CO2 at around 500 parts per million. That’s a level not seen on this planet since the Middle Miocene, 16 million years ago, when our ancestors were apes. Temperatures then were about 5 to 8ºC warmer not 2º, and sea levels were some 40 meters (130 feet) or more higher, not the 1.5 feet (half a meter) anticipated at the end of this century by the 2013 IPCC report."

Alex Wierbinski's picture

Arctic Plants are Getting Rapidly Taller

ECO-CRASHING NEWS

Arctic Plants are Getting Rapidly Taller

New plants on the block: Taller species are taking over in a warming Arctic,
German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, September 26, 2018.

MAIN POINTS

Arctic Growth Everywhere
"The increase in height we saw was not just in a few sites but nearly everywhere."

Warming Caused
“The researchers identify climate warming as the underlying cause. Temperatures in the Arctic have risen by about 1 degree Celsius in summer and 1.5 degrees in winter over the three decades covered by the study, some of the fastest rates of warming on the planet.”

Spreading Tallness
"Taller plant species, either from warmer pockets within the tundra or from southern areas, have spread across the tundra."

Tall Future
"If taller plants continue to spread at the current rate, the plant community height could increase by 20 to 60% by the end of the century."

Time Bomb
“...the permafrost underlying tundra vegetation contains one-third to half of the world's soil carbon. When the permafrost thaws, greenhouse gases could thus be released.”

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