You are hereForum / Forum: Four Season High Sierra Weather and Trail Conditions / Fall 2011 / High Sierra Nevada Hiking Weather Forecasts Predictions Conditions

High Sierra Nevada Hiking Weather Forecasts Predictions Conditions


Alex Wierbinski's picture

By Alex Wierbinski - Posted on 05 October 2011

 High Sierra Nevada Hiker Skier Mountain Weather  Warnings, Forcasts,  Reports, Ground Conditions,  Maps, Radar and Satellite Resources

  

HIGH SIERRA WEATHER INDEX for BACKPACKERS and SKIERS

Storm Warnings

Forecasts

Graphical Interface

 

Reporting Stations

Snow Analyses

 

Satellites

Radar

 

Weather Maps

Probability & Climate Prediction Center

 

Information & Instruction

 

Road Conditions

National Forests and Parks

Yosemite

 

Safety

Notes, Analysis, and Comments

Introduction

High Sierra Backpackers, Hikers, and Skiers need  Accurate and Compreshensive Weather information to plan and safely gear themselves for successful backcountry travel. Here they are.

   Find below the latest High Sierra ground conditions: Warnings, Forecasts, Temperatures and Current Conditions from real-time reporting stations along the Sierra Nevada Crest Line. From the sky check the  Satellites,  regional and local Radar, Weather Maps, and a strong set of prediction tools. High Sierra road conditions too...

This is designed so you can understand current conditions, effectively anticipate approaching storm and weather conditions, gage the system's strength, duration and direction, and measure the potential interval between storms, if relevant. All weather links open in a new tab.

Recent Scouting Report:

Carson-Iceberg Loop. Late October 2011.

 

High Sierra Winter Storm Warnings

Reno

Sacramento

Hanford

A blank page appears if there are no current warnings. Warnings are listed in order of nearness to the local NWS office. Scroll down list for all nearby warnings.   

7-Day National Weather Service High Sierra Forecasts

Sierra Nevada Weather Forecasts

North Sierra Nevada Weather Forecast: LAKE TAHOE REGION

Sierra Nevada Mountain Weather Forecasts.

Above: View North Sierra, Greater Lake Tahoe Forecast 

WESTERN NORTH-CENTRAL SIERRA NEVADA WEATHER FORECAST

West Central Sierra Nevada Weather Forecasts.

Above: View North/Central Sierra weather forecast, Western Slope North Sierra South to Yosemite 

EAST CENTRAL SIERRA NEVADA WEATHER FORECAST

  Mono County.

Above: View Eastern-Central Sierra Weather forecast, Mono County

CENTRAL SIERRA NEVADA WEATHER FORECAST

Yosemite Kings Canyon High Sierra Weather.

Above: View Central-South Sierra Weather Forecast, Yosemite to Kings Canyon Forecast 

SOUTH SIERRA WEATHER FORECAST

 Southern high Sierra weather forecasts.

Above: View South Sierra Weather Forecast, Tulare County Mountains Forecast

Select a forecast region of the Sierra to view its forecast. Forecast area can be shifted to a different area or centered on a point within each region's forecast area map.

Regional Forecasts :Central-Western United United States. Click location on the map for that location's Forecast     

Cool NWS Graphical Interface Forecast

Weather, Wind, Dew, Temperature & much more

Graphical weather interface for Northern California.

Above: View North & Central Sierra,  Northern California

Graphical Forecast

Southern Sierra-Southern California  

Graphical Forecast

Note that this cool graphical interface provides a wide range of weather data over a large geographical area over a long time span. This interface is adjustable out to 6 days into the future...The Map changes to represent the category you scroll over the list.

For reporting stations from specific locations see the reporting stations below:  

Real-Time Reporting Stations

SNOTEL

Actual High Sierra Snow-Rain-Temp Information

 SNOTEL sites in the Sierra Nevada Mountains.

Current Conditions from an extensive web of High Sierra reporting stations

Above: View Federal list, All California SNOTEL Sites

The Fed list above is better organized and offers easier access to information than Ca's system. Click the SNOTEL station data you want to view, then the 7-day report.

CALIFORNIA DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES

California real time weather reporting stations.

Above: View California State, CDEC Station Locator Map.

California's system is comprehensive but plagued with data collection, presentation, and navigation issues. Navigate the map to your desired location in the High Sierra. Find the stations along your trails. Read the selected station data for current and recent conditions.  

MESOWEST Reporting Stations

Mesowest stations in the North Sierra.

Above: View Federal Mesowest Station Map, Northern California.

More: Mesowest Station Map, Southern California.

The Mesowest system is excellent. Mesowest is well-organized and stocked with stations across the High Sierra and foothills. Scroll your cursor over the MesoWest station locations on the map for instant basic read-outs, click the station location for a full report.  

METAR Stations in California

METAR Data Northern California

METAR Data Southern California

 A weather reporting system for  pilots, but it may have a reporting station you are interested in.   

The Big Snow Picture in the Sierra Nevada Mountains

Snowpack Status

 The Sierra Nevada.

Above: Federal, Regional Snow Analyses: Western Coastal.

This feature gives you a excellent view of the overall extent and status of the High Sierra Nevada snowpack presenting the various rates of different types of degradation.  

 

Weather Observation Resources

The Really Big Picture

High Sierra Real-Time Satellites

NWS: National Weather Service

National Weather Service Satellite image of United States and Pacific Ocean.

Above: View Whole Pacific Ocean Animation, 28 Km Water Vapor Loop.

Regional List of Western US Satellites: NWS US Satellites. Especially check the 28 Km animations.

  GOES

Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites, part of NOAA

GOES West water vapor satellite video.

Above: View Big Picture Animation, GOES Western US. Water Vapor Loop.

View Bigger Picture Animation: GOES Northeast Pacific. Water Vapor Loop.

Big Picture List: GOES Pacific Satellites. Pacific Ocean and Western U.S.

Traveling? GOES covers the entire US and the entirety of the Pacific and Alantic Oceans. Check the GOES index page for all GOES satellites.

High Sierra Real-Time Radar Resources

California

Western United States radar image, including Sierra Nevada Mountains.

Above: View Big Picture California, Pacific Southwest Radar

Click any part of the map above to view the local radar for that area.

NORTH CENTRAL SIERRA NEVADA RADAR

 North Sierra Nevada Mountain radar.

Above: View North-Central Sierra Nevada Local Radar, Reno

SOUTH CENTRAL SIERRA NEVADA RADAR

 South Sierra Nevada Radar.

Above: View Central-South Sierra Local Radar, San Joaquin  

BIG PICTURE Analysis Tools

General US Weather Map

Weather maps.

Above: NWS Big Picture Weather Maps. These weather maps project US conditions six days into the future in daily intervals.

Fronts and Precipitation Maps

Fronts and precipitation weather map.

Above: NWS Big Picture Current 12 hour fronts-precipitation Map. These detailed weather maps project conditions two days into the future by 12 hour intervals.

NWS: Surface Low Pressure Tracks (3 days)

NWS: Probability of Surface Freezing (6.5 days)

All of the daily interval Weather Maps out to six days and the 12 hour interval Weather Maps out to two days are available from the Weather Maps page.

Information about these Weather Maps. Explanation of symbols used on the Weather Maps.  

Winter Weather Forecast Probability Tools  

Winter Weather Probability Maps

Snow probability maps.

This feature gives you snowfall probabilities three days into the future. Compare the probability charts for different depths of snow for the most accurate picture of upcoming conditions.

Above: Snowfall Probability Forecast Maps

Besides the snowfall probability maps the above page also features nifty national projections of surface low tracks and the potential for freezing temps:

NWS: Surface Low Pressure Tracks (3 days)

NWS: Probability of Surface Freezing (6.5 days)

Climate Prediction Center

US climate prediction center.

Above: The Climate Prediction Center at NOAA offers probabilities of Temperature and Precipation for the United States from six days to three months into the future, along with the US weather hazard and drought assesments.

Though not as reliable as forecasts these predictions may alert you to the potential range of extreme conditions you could encounter beyond the scope of  weather forecasts..

 

Weather Information-Instruction

National Weather Service online school for Weather: Index 

The NWS instructional information is excellent. Except for the lightening safety info, which is next to worthless. No, I don't  "stay indoors." What buffoons. High Sierra Backpackers can be 5+ days' hike from any structure...  

High Sierra Road Conditions

CALTRANS

Caltrans Mountain Road Conditions by Region

Caltrans Mountain Road Conditions: Lake Tahoe Basin 

Caltrans Road Conditions: Enter Hwy Number.

Call 1-800-427-7623 for current Caltrans highway conditions.  

Weather in the National Forests and Parks in the High Sierra Nevada

Tahoe to Whitney is gradually building links between the trail guide and weather reporting resources and the ground reporting stations along the Sierra Nevada Mountains. Keep an eye on this feature as I make progress on the trail guide.

Check the Permits page on the trail guide for links to the National Forests in the Northern Sierra. Each National Forest posts-up a "Conditions" page with some small bit of trails information, and a bunch more info about the status of  their backcountry road conditions.

From the National Forest and Park pages you can determine who theWilderness Ranger is, and try to hit them up for current backcountry information.

 

Yosemite National Park

Weather Forecasts, Reports, and Real Time Reporting Stations

Everyone always asks, so here it is: Yosemite National Park''s  Current Conditions page.

 

Other Yosemite Weather Resources

NWS Forecast: Yosemite Valley 

Mesowest Ground Station: Yosemite Valley

 

NWS Forecast: Tuolumne Meadows

Mesowest Ground Station: Tuolumne Meadows  

Who's Open?

No one. It's mid-Winter. But these Links to Backpacker Resupply Locations between Tahoe and Whitney can help you plan next Summer's Tahoe to Whitney backpacking trip:

Tahoe to Whitney Resupply Resources

 

 Safety Information  

Lapse Rat: 2.7 degrees per 1000 ft. average wet.This is the wet Lapse Rate, which applies to the majority of air masses blown off of the Pacific Ocean or evaporating out of The Valley. These air masses contain lots of moisture, which retards chilling as they gain elevation to cross the Sierra. 

Yet I warn in my Winter Gear Videos of the dangers of Eastern Continential Cold Air Masses blowing into the Sierra during the Winter. These air masses are composed of very dry frigid air moving Westward off of the Great Plains.

An ECCAM brings frigid dry air to high elevation from the East. In this case I believe the extreme cold this weather feature brings to the Sierra is partially a product of the "dry" Lapse Rate, which is 5.4 degrees per 1000 feet, as well as this air having been deeply chilled and dried out over the Great Plains before moving Westward.

We are entering the time of year when understanding the possibility of a Continential Cold Air Mass coming our way becomes an important consideration packing your Winter kit.

Cold Safety Information

NOAA:  Winter Safety Page.

NOAA: Winter Storms, the deceptive killers. (pdf)

Mountain Safety Forum Page.

 Heat Safety Information

Heat Index: 95 degrees is the line.

The heat safety information linked to above is not a big issue at this time of year, but it is good information you should be aware of.  

 

Welcome to the Fall High Sierra Reports and Analysis

Below you will find the link to my analysis of the progress of the weather into the ultra-dry Winter of 2011-2012. This bone-dry Winter followed the Winter of 2010-2011, which was one of the wettest and snowiest for decades. The snowpack never totally cleared from the Sierra Crest during the Summer of 2011... 

Check out the Winter through Spring Thaw of 2012 article.

And, subesequently Winter has not come to the Sierra during the 2011-2012 season. No problem for me. I'm still recovering from injury incurred last Winter. Therefore I need your reports to get my hiking fix.

 YOUR REPORTS

You can post up your notes and experiences with High Sierra Fall Trail Conditions on this page through the comments link below, or you can post up your own page about your trip in the Seasonal Reports Forum. Post up your experiences with these dustings of snow. Everyone freaks out... 

Oct 5: notes about various parts of the trail, see the Trails Forum.

My Status

I'm still recovering from an injury, so you guys can add to our knowledge through the comments link below, or as your own article in this, the  Seasnonal Conditions Reports Forum.

But I've plans to sneak in my first trip this Fall before the snows fall. Stay Tuned!.

Done: Late October Fall Scouting Trip: Carson-Iceberg Loop.

 

 

 Ouick Notes on the Winter of 2011-2012

More Information

Mid February:

A weak series of storm pulses out of the West-Northwest delivered almost no rain to the lowlands and little snow to the Sierra. There is little snow on the Sierra, and California has received around 30% of normal Winter precipitation, at the most. Skies are now sunny and clear. The Spring bloom has begun in mid Feb.

My experiences here indicate that 1 in 3 dry winters are "bailed out" by fierce Spring tropical storm activity out of the Southwest. For some reason I don't feel that we are going to get "bailed-out" by Spring storms out of the South this year.

Jan 19: Weak but wet storms blowing directly out of the West, straight across the Pacific Ocean from China. These weak rainstorms have finally broken a month of dry weather through the heart of Wintertime.

Gear

Mid-February 2012 Temps and conditions at this point in time indicate to me that full Winter Gear can be lightened to your Spring/Fall gear kit. Though it's still early in the year, Spring conditions are establishing themselves.

Gear selection must be dependent on solid temp information. Monitor the reporting stations near your route to determine the actual temps, carefully scan the forecasts, weather maps, predictions, and satellite information for indications of changing conditions.

Always pack gear for the worse possible conditions while hoping for the best. Despite the warm weather and because of the clear conditions nightime temps can still plunge to well below freezing. Though the skies say "June," it is still February, and conditions can still change rapidly.

January 6, 2012

At this point in Winter it is quite clear that Winter weight gear must replace your Fall gear kit. Don't let the clear skies and lack of snow fool you. It's getting Wintertime cold in the Sierra, and clear skies make for very cold nights. Winter temps have descended on the Sierra, even if Winter snows have not.

But here I'm concerned with providing you with the best information about Sierra weather and trail conditions possible. So you can anticipate the rapid changes in "trail" conditions that are now possible. My approach is to match my layering with the range of temps and conditions I anticipate. Check out the Gear page on the Trail guide and the Winter Gear Selection videos on YouTube.

Rapidly Changing Conditions?

DANGER-DANGER

Mid-February 2012 Fine conditions can draw backpackers to the mountains like moths to the flame. Don't get burned. Though temps are rising, the threat of dangerous storms still looms, and must be considered before undertaking any Winter Travel into the Sierra. One big plume of super-heated moisture from East of Hawaii, or from South of Baja that swings North across the Sierra can deposit THREE FEET of snow in one evening.

January 5, 2012

Winter conditions are deepening, bringing cooler temps but not yet even a threat of significant snow to the Sierra Nevada as of January 5, 2012. To me this means that conditions in the Sierra can and will change rapidly.

Just wait until the South Pacific throws a mass of super-heated tropical mositure at the Sierra. Three feet of snow can fall in one night.

You will need to anticipate the possibility of snow obscuring the trail and terrain along with deep cold conditions requiring thicker gear. You must be prepared and geared for the physical difficulities of unexpected snow travel.

Seriously, these conditions "on the ground" could change in a heartbeat due to the low temps in the Sierra. Any moisture that blows up there will come down as snow. Local storms and flurries that are not connected to any major storm fronts are regular events. Though "local" weather is generally limited in power, these mini-storms can cover the terain with a light coat of snow and ice.

DAMN STRANGE WEATHER 

We saw Winter conditions persisting into Spring this year and Spring conditions pushed deep into the Summer in 2011. The Spring Thaw of 2011 page recorded the slow thaw of 2011.

These conditions made the Summer of 2011 one of the shortest backpacking seasons in recent memory? These aberrant weather patterns have continued into the Fall and Winter of 2011-2012, but this year we are noting the almost complete lack of precipitation, while last year we noted the intensity and length of the Winter season.

PCT WATCH

If these very strange conditions continue we may well see the earliest opening of the Pacific Crest Trail hiking season in decades. Maybe...  

Happy Trails,  

Alex    

Powered by Drupal, an open source content management system

Text Translations

Flag icon for 'de' languageFlag icon for 'it' languageFlag icon for 'ru' languageFlag icon for 'fr' languageFlag icon for 'es' languageFlag icon for 'pl' languageFlag icon for 'no' languageFlag icon for 'fi' languageFlag icon for 'da' languageFlag icon for 'ro' language

Search

Get the Latest from Tahoe to Whitney

Syndicate content

Art Shapiro's Butterfly Site

The Trails between Tahoe and Whitney

Recent comments

Random image

Three Amigos

Who's online

There are currently 0 users and 2 guests online.